First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- Euro 2008 on ABC, Netherlands/Russia. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.2. ABC drew a decent rating for Euro 2008 coverage last Saturday. The 1.2 rating may not be stellar for a sporting event on broadcast, but the match did outdraw the third round of the Travelers Championship on CBS and the IRL on ABC.
- MLB on FOX, Cardinals/Red Sox. Prediction: 2.3. Final rating: 1.7. Despite the presence defending champion Boston Red Sox, MLB on FOX saw a 39% drop last week. The 1.7 rating for the Cardinals’ blowout victory is tied as the lowest of the season, and brings the season average down to a 2.0, off 20% from last year.
- MLB on ESPN, White Sox/Cubs. Prediction: 2.1. Final rating: 1.9. ESPN drew decent numbers for White Sox/Cubs last Sunday. The 1.9 rating marks an 11% increase from the comparable Tigers/Braves game last year, and the 2.96 million viewers is the best for a Sunday Night Baseball broadcast since a May 18 Yankees/Mets game.
- NASCAR on TNT, Toyota/Save Mart 350. Prediction: 3.6. Final rating: 3.7. Ratings for the Toyota Save/Mart 350 were off slightly from last year’s 3.8, but the race was still the second most watched program of the week on cable.
- Gymnastics on NBC, U.S. Olympic Trials. Prediction: 3.7. Final rating: 3.9. Ratings for the U.S. Olympic Gymnastics trials were up slightly from comparable coverage in 2004. The 6.3 million viewers for the event was the fifth best for any prime time program on NBC last week.
This week’s predictions:
- MLS on ABC, Galaxy/United, 12 PM Sunday — Sunday will be a very interesting day for soccer in America. Before the Euro 2008 final, ABC will air a special MLS telecast, featuring David Beckham and the L.A. Galaxy. Last year, two MLS telecasts on ABC drew ratings of 0.5 and 0.8, respectively. It should be pointed out that neither match featured Beckham. Prediction: 1.0.
- Euro 2008 on ABC, Spain/Germany, 2:30 PM Sunday — At the very least, the ratings for the Euro 2008 tournament have proven that there is a decent audience for soccer in America. The ratings for this year’s event have been comparable to ratings for the NHL playoffs on Versus, despite matches airing in the mid-afternoon on weekdays. Look for a solid rating for the final, which will have very little competition on broadcast this Sunday. Prediction: 2.1.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Mets or Cubs/White Sox, 3:30 PM Saturday — With ratings down 20%, FOX finally gets another Yankees game. So far this season, three Yankees telecasts on FOX have averaged a 2.3 rating, 15% higher than the season average. While the Yankees play the Mets in a highly rated crosstown rivalry, most of the country will get Cubs/White Sox, which put up good numbers on ESPN last week. Prediction: 2.8.
- U.S. Olympic Trials on NBC, Swimming/Track & Field, 7 PM Sunday — For the second straight week, NBC gives up half of its Sunday prime time line up for the Olympic trials. Four years ago, comparable prime time coverage of the swimming and track & field trials drew a 4.2/8. Prediction: 3.5.
- Wimbledon on NBC, early round action, 12 PM Saturday and Sunday — While the presence of the Williams sisters should help ratings, the fact that all of the American men have been eliminated will hurt NBC’s fortunes. Last year, comparable coverage drew ratings of 1.3 and 1.1 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. Prediction: 1.0 and 0.9.
- NASCAR on TNT, Lenox Industrial Tools 301, 2 PM Sunday — While ratings are not up significantly, NASCAR continues to put up good numbers on TNT. Look for the numbers for this year’s Lenox Industrial Tools 301 to improve slightly over the 3.3 for last year’s race. Prediction: 3.5.
