First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- British Open on ABC, Final Round. Prediction: 3.3. Final rating: 3.3. Ratings for the British Open fell 11% from a 3.7 last year. The 3.3 final rating is the lowest for the final round of The Open since at least 1997.
- IRL on ABC, Honda Grand Prix at Mid-Ohio. Prediction: 1.1. Final rating: 1.3. For the second straight year, a decent lead-in from the British Open led to solid ratings for the IRL. While the 1.3 rating and 1.8 million viewers was off 24% and 25% from a 1.7 with 2.4 million last year, the race drew the best numbers of any IRL telecast this season outside of the Indy 500.
- MLB on FOX, Red Sox/Angels or other regional action. Prediction: 2.1. Final rating: 2.2. Ratings for baseball on FOX were flat from last year. FOX is averaging a 2.1 rating through sixteen MLB telecasts, down 16% from a 2.5 last year.
- MLB on ESPN, Home Run Derby (7/14). Prediction: 4.5. Final rating: 5.5. The Home Run Derby on ESPN drew impressive numbers. The 5.5 rating is the highest for the event since 1999, and the 9.1 million viewers is the most since 1998. The Home Run Derby is the highest rated, most viewed non-NFL sporting event on cable since Game 4 of last year’s ALDS between the Yankees and Indians.
Final national ratings for the ESPY Awards on ESPN currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Red Sox or Braves/Phillies, 3:30 PM Saturday — Yankees/Red Sox games account for the two highest rated, most viewed FOX telecasts of the season, though ratings are down slightly from last year. The first two games on FOX between the rivals averaged a 2.9 rating, compared to a 3.0 for four games last season. Look for this Saturday’s match-up to draw the best ratings of the season, with the Yankees and Red Sox both battling the Rays for first in the AL East. Prediction: 3.3.
- MLB on ESPN, Yankees/Red Sox, 8 PM Sunday — So far this season, the two Yankees/Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball games were the highest rated of the season, drawing a 2.6 and 2.7. Like FOX, ESPN has seen ratings for the rivalry decline somewhat; the first two Sunday Night Baseball games between the rivals last year drew ratings of 3.5 and 3.6. Still, look for an impressive number this week. Prediction: 3.0.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Allstate 400 at the Brickyard, 2 PM Sunday — NASCAR returns to ESPN this Sunday. After ratings were up slightly on FOX and TNT, look for ESPN to see similar results for its six weeks of coverage. Still, expect a small drop in ratings for this year’s Allstate 400 at the Brickyard. The ’07 edition drew a 4.2, making it last year’s highest rated NASCAR race on cable. Prediction: 4.0.
- AFL on ABC, Sabercats/Soul, 3 PM Sunday — The AFL playoffs have drawn decent numbers on ESPN. However, the problem with having so many games on cable (as sports from the NBA to the NHL can attest) is that when the time comes for the biggest events to be showcased on broadcast, they draw a cable-sized audience. Last year’s Arena Bowl drew a 0.7. Prediction: 0.8.
