A minor furor has erupted in the blogosphere concerning the attendance of the NBA and NHL, and the relative popularity of both.
The SupersonicSoul blog, named after the now defunct NBA team, recently posted a chart depicting the NHL as having higher average attendance than the NBA. On the Puck Daddy blog, Greg Wyshynski references the infamous Sports Illustrated cover, “Why the NHL’s Hot and the NBA’s Not”, published in 1994. Wyshynski: “14 years later, we find ourselves at another ‘Hot Not’ moment for the NHL and the NBA, the two most popular professional arena sports in North America (sorry, lacrosse). Both leagues are taking their licks as the economy worsens; but the numbers show the NHL’s gains and stability in attendance, while basketball fans are concerned about what they see as a clear enthusiasm gap in the NBA.” Eric McErlain on AOL’s The Fanhouse blog is less diplomatic. In a post titled, “Read it and weep, NBA“, McErlain writes, “the trend is as clear as day: something has happened to the NBA fan base and it happened well in advance of the current economic distress the nation and the world are experiencing. … I can’t help but enjoy seeing the hoops crowd on the hot seat for once.”
McErlain says that “the NBA has experienced something of a precipitous drop over the past few years.” SupersonicSoul writes that the data “is the cold, hard hand of reality smacking David Stern in the face. In the past six years, his league has gone from dominator to also-ran.”
Counter to the claims of sharply declining attendance, the NBA’s attendance in 2007-08 was down 2% from the previous year, and was still the third-highest average attendance in league history. Only the two previous seasons had higher average attendance. Including the ’04-’05 season, the last four NBA seasons have drawn the four highest attendance levels in league history.
During the 2007-08 season, the NBA averaged 17,396 fans per game, compared to 17,268 for the NHL. Through November 24 of this year, using the most recent data compiled from ESPN.com, the NBA is edging the NHL in average attendance, 17,178 to 17,119. Puck Daddy notes that in the fifteen cities in which there are both NHL and NBA teams, the NBA has the higher average attendance in 11 of the 15 cities, while NHL teams fill their arena to a higher capacity in 8 of the cities.
What cannot be disputed is that the NHL’s attendance is on an upward trend, while the NBA’s is on a downward trend. Through November 10, NHL attendance was up 1.2% compared to the same period last year. During the 2007-08 season, NHL attendance was up 1.8%, while NBA attendance was down 2.1%.
What can be taken from this? The NBA still has higher attendance than the NHL, and while NBA attendance has been declining in the past two seasons, last year’s average attendance still ranked among the best in league history. The NHL does take the lead in terms of filling its arenas to capacity; 20 NHL teams play to 90% capacity, compared to 17 for the NBA.
The biggest difference between the two leagues may be this: only 4 NHL teams play to less than 80% capacity, compared to 8 NBA teams that share that distinction. Four NBA teams (Charlotte, Philadelphia, Sacramento and Memphis) are currently averaging fewer fans per game than the team with the lowest attendance in the NHL — the New York Islanders.
Does this speak to the NHL being a hot ticket and the NBA being on the decline? To a slight extent, yes. NBA attendance is not dropping “precipitously”, but it is dropping. Meanwhile, NHL attendance is not skyrocketing, but it is increasing. While the NBA still draws higher attendance, the gap is close enough that the NHL could end up with a higher average attendance than the NBA this season. So the NHL is definitely gaining on the NBA in attendance, even if not as dramatically as has been portrayed.
But, to go back to the 1994 SI cover that Wyshynski referenced, is the NHL hot and the NBA not?
Such a question seems strange in a year when regular season NBA games on ABC beat FOX Saturday Baseball by 10% in the ratings, ABC drew a higher average rating for its NBA Playoff telecasts (including the Finals) than CBS did for its NCAA Tournament coverage (including the Final Four), and the NBA Finals on ABC beat the World Series on FOX by 11%. It would seem that, if anything, the NBA is pulling away from the NHL.
NBA/NHL attendance since 2002.
2007-8: NBA 17,396, NHL 17,268 (difference of 1%)
2006-7: NBA 17,767, NHL 16,964 (difference of 5%)
2005-6: NBA 17,548, NHL 16,955 (difference of 3%)
2004-5: NBA 17,314, NHL (no season)
2003-4: NBA 17,130, NHL 16,538 (difference of 4%)
2002-3: NBA 16,883, NHL 16,592 (difference of 2%)
