First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Final rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Bulls/Celtics Game 1 | ESPN |
2.0
|
2.0
|
| The NBA Playoffs tipped off on a higher note last Saturday. The 2.0 U.S. rating for the Bulls’ overtime win over the Celtics was up 5% from a 1.9 for Wizards/Cavaliers in the same timeslot last year. | ||||
| NBA | Pistons/Cavaliers Game 1 | ABC |
2.5
|
2.2
|
| The Cavaliers’ less-than-dramatic drubbing of the Pistons last Saturday drew a 2.2 final rating on ABC, down 31% from a 3.2 for last year’s comparable Suns/Spurs thriller. | ||||
| NBA | Mavericks/Spurs Game 1 | ESPN |
2.3
|
1.7
|
| Despite featuring two of the better known NBA teams this decade, Game 1 between the Mavericks and Spurs drew the lowest rating of any NBA Playoff game through Wednesday. The 1.7 for Game 1 between the rivals was off 19% from a 2.1 for Mavericks/Hornets in ’08. | ||||
| NBA | Rockets/Blazers Game 1 | ESPN |
1.9
|
2.1
|
| The Rockets’ blowout win over the Blazers drew a 2.1 rating, even with last year’s comparable Jazz/Rockets game. | ||||
| NBA | Jazz/Lakers Game 1 | ABC |
3.6
|
3.2
|
| While the 3.2 for the Lakers’ Game 1 win over Utah is the highest rating so far of the NBA Playoffs, it was still down 8% from a 3.5 for Nuggets/Lakers last year. | ||||
| NBA | 76ers/Magic Game 1 | TNT |
1.5
|
1.8
|
| The 1.8 for Philadelphia’s upset win over Orlando in Game 1 of their series marks a 38% improvement over Raptors/Magic Game 1 last year, which aired in an earlier timeslot. | ||||
| NBA | Heat/Hawks Game 1 | TNT |
1.9
|
2.2
|
| The Hawks’ blowout win over the Heat last Sunday drew a 2.2, up 10% from a 2.0 for last year’s comparable 76ers/Pistons game, which aired in an earlier timeslot. | ||||
| NBA | Hornets/Nuggets Game 1 | TNT |
1.8
|
2.0
|
| The 2.0 rating for the Nuggets’ easy victory over the Hornets last Sunday was down 9% from a 2.2 for Hawks/Celtics Game 1 last year, which aired in an earlier timeslot. | ||||
| NHL | Rangers/Capitals Game 2 | NBC |
1.0
|
0.7
|
| NHL ratings may be generally up this year, but NBC cannot be pleased that last Saturday’s tilt between the Rangers and Capitals drew a mere 0.7 rating. The 0.7 marks a 13% drop from a 0.8 for Predators/Red Wings Game 2 last year. | ||||
| NHL | Penguins/Flyers Game 3 | NBC |
0.9
|
1.3
|
| For the second straight year, Penguins/Flyers has been a big ratings draw. The 1.3 for the Flyers’ win marks a 62% rise from a 0.8 for Flyers/Capitals in ’08. | ||||
| MLB | Indians/Yankees or other regional action | FOX |
2.3
|
2.4
|
| The 2.4 final rating for the Indians’ blowout victory over the Yankees marks a 20% increase over a 2.0 for coverage on the comparable date last year, and even topped the 2.2 rating for an NBA Playoff game on ABC airing at virtually the same time. | ||||
| NASCAR | Subway Fresh Fit 500 | FOX |
4.1
|
3.6
|
| NASCAR on FOX tumbled to a record low rating last week. The 3.6 for the Subway Fresh Fit 500 marks an 18% decline from a 4.4 for the same race last year, and is the lowest rating ever for a NASCAR race on FOX. Still, even a record low NASCAR rating managed to top every other sporting event on broadcast for the week, including both NBA Playoff games on ABC. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net |
Prediction
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Spurs/Mavericks Game 4 | 4:00 PM Saturay | TNT |
1.3
|
| Ratings for the Spurs/Mavericks series have been less than impressive, as the first two games both saw declines versus the comparable games last year. With this game airing directly opposite both the NFL Draft and Yankees/Red Sox, do not expect the ratings to improve much from the 1.1 for Magic/Raptors in a similar timeslot last year. | ||||
| NBA | Hawks/Heat Game 3 | 6:30 PM Saturday | TNT |
1.6
|
| Look for a slight drop in ratings for this pivotal Game 3 between the Hawks and Dwyane Wade‘s Heat. Last year’s comparable Lakers/Nuggets game drew a 1.7 in an earlier timeslot. | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Jazz Game 4 | 9 PM Saturday | ESPN |
2.5
|
| With the NFL Draft serving as a lead-in and the series now at 2-1 instead of 3-0, look for Game 4 between the Lakers and Jazz to put up a strong number Saturday night. Last year, Celtics/Hawks drew approximately a 2.0 U.S. rating. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Bulls Game 4 | 1:00 PM Sunday | ABC |
2.6
|
| This series has been one of the highest rated of the first round, but Thursday’s Game 3 blowout may have curtailed some of the momentum. Last year’s comparable Cavaliers/Wizards game drew a 2.4 rating; look for an improvement this time around. | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Pistons Game 4 | 3:30 PM Sunday | ABC |
2.9
|
| Do not expect very good ratings for this game, as the Cavaliers own a 3-0 series lead and the Pistons have not been competitive. Last year’s Spurs/Suns Game 4, which the Spurs entered up 3-0, drew a 3.5. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Red Sox or Cubs/Cardinals | 4 PM Saturday | FOX |
2.6
|
| Yankees/Red Sox is in for a rude awakening opposite the NFL Draft. Not even the most heated rivalry in all of baseball can match the drama of people sitting around for five hours. Last year’s first meeting between the teams on FOX drew a 2.7. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Red Sox | 8 PM Saturday | ESPN |
3.0
|
| Without competition from the NFL Draft, look for Yankees/Red Sox to draw a big number on Sunday night. Last year, the first Sunday Night Baseball meeting between the teams drew a 2.6. | ||||
| NHL | Penguins/Flyers Game 6 | 3 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.2
|
| Penguins/Flyers has been a big ratings draw for NBC. Expect more of the same for Saturday’s Game 6. Last year’s comparable Game 5 between the Flyers and Capitals drew a 0.9. | ||||
| NHL | Capitals/Rangers Game 6 | 2 PM Sunday | NBC |
1.2
|
|
While the first NBC game between the Capitals and Rangers put up poor numbers, expect solid ratings for Game 6 on Sunday. Last year, Red Wings/Predators Game 6 drew a 1.0. |
||||
| NASCAR | Aaron’s 499 | 1 PM Sunday | FOX |
4.9
|
| On a weekend featuring the NBA Playoffs, Yankees/Red Sox and the NFL Draft, the Aaron’s 499 will easily draw the highest rating. Still, FOX cannot be pleased with the consistent ratings declines for races this year. Coming off of a record low 3.6 last week, look for another big drop for NASCAR on FOX. Last year’s race drew a 5.7. | ||||
| NFL | NFL Draft | 4 PM Saturday | ESPN |
3.4
|
| The NFL Draft continues to draw strong numbers annually, but last year’s event was the lowest rated since ’04. Expect ratings to hold steady this year. | ||||
