First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Final rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Spurs/Mavericks Game 4 | TNT |
1.4
|
1.1
|
| The measly 1.1 U.S. rating for the Mavericks’ Game 4 win over the Spurs last Saturday was even with last year’s comparable Magic/Raptors Game 4. | ||||
| NBA | Hawks/Heat Game 3 | TNT |
1.6
|
1.2
|
| Miami’s blowout win over Atlanta in Game 3 last Saturday evening drew a 1.2 U.S. rating on TNT, down 29% from a 1.7 for Lakers/Nuggets Game 3 in a similar timeslot last year. | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Jazz Game 4 | ESPN |
2.5
|
2.2
|
| The 2.2 for the Jazz’ last home game of the 2008-09 season was up from last year’s comparable Celtics/Hawks Game 3, which drew an approximated 2.0 rating. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Bulls Game 4 | ABC |
2.6
|
3.3
|
| The Bulls’ double-overtime win over the Celtics last Sunday afternoon drew a 3.3 rating on ABC, up 38% from a 2.4 for Cavaliers/Wizards last year. | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Pistons Game 4 | ABC |
2.9
|
3.5
|
| The clinching game of the Cavaliers/Pistons series drew a 3.5 rating on ABC last Sunday, thanks in part to the lower-rated first half of the game being preempted by Celtics/Bulls. The 3.5 is even with Spurs/Suns Game 4 last year. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Red Sox or Cubs/Cardinals | FOX |
2.6
|
2.7
|
| The first Yankees/Red Sox game of the season on FOX drew a 2.7 rating, even with the rivals’ first battle on FOX last season. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Red Sox | ESPN |
3.0
|
3.0
|
| ESPN drew strong numbers for Yankees/Red Sox last Sunday night. The 3.0 U.S. rating for the final game of the Red Sox’ sweep was up 15% from a 2.6 for the first Sunday night meeting between the teams last year. | ||||
| NHL | Penguins/Flyers Game 6 | NBC |
1.2
|
1.0
|
| The 1.0 for the Penguins’ series-clinching Game 6 win over the Flyers last week was up 11% from last year’s comparable Game 5 between the Capitals and Flyers. | ||||
| NHL | Capitals/Rangers Game 6 | NBC |
1.2
|
0.7
|
| For the second straight week, Capitals/Rangers drew a measly 0.7 on NBC. This week’s 0.7 marked a 30% plummet from a 1.0 for Predators/Red Wings in ’08. | ||||
| NASCAR | Aaron’s 499 | FOX |
4.9
|
5.0
|
| Last week’s controversial Aaron’s 499 drew a solid 5.0 rating on FOX, the best NASCAR rating since March 8’s Kobalt Tools 500, but off 12% from last year and the lowest rating for the race since at least ’98. | ||||
| NFL | NFL Draft | ESPN |
3.4
|
3.4
|
| The 3.4 U.S. rating for the 2009 NFL Draft was even with last year. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net |
Prediction
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse racing | Kentucky Derby | 4 PM Saturday | NBC |
8.2
|
| Horse racing’s crown jewel takes center stage on a packed sports Saturday. With several horses scratched from the race, including the favorite, the event figures to lose some luster. Still, the Derby will be far and away the highest rated sporting event of the weekend, trouncing everything else. Last year’s Derby drew an 8.8/21 for the race portion. | ||||
| NBA | Bulls/Celtics Game 7 | 8 PM Saturday | TNT |
3.7
|
| The finale of one of the most memorable playoff series in sports history takes place Saturday night. Ratings for the first 6 games of Bulls/Celtics were 42% higher than the comparable games last year, and Game 6 (3.5) was the most viewed first round NBA playoff game ever on cable. Still, Saturday night is the lowest rated night of the week, which should have a negative effect on the numbers. | ||||
| NBA | Hawks/Heat Game 7 | 1 PM Sunday | ABC |
2.8
|
| The finale of one of the most uncompetitive playoff series in sports history gets a prime spot on ABC on Sunday. Hawks/Heat has drawn decent numbers so far, and Game 7s always attract viewers.That being said, this game will be hard pressed to match the ratings for Hawks/Celtics Game 7 last year, or even Celtics/Bulls Game 4 last week. | ||||
| NBA | Mavericks/Nuggets Game 1 | 3:30 PM Sunday | ABC |
3.0
|
| On the bright side, a broadcast television audience will get exposure to teams they usually don’t see in the playoffs. The Mavericks have not played a playoff game on ABC since 2006, and the Nuggets made one token appearance against the Lakers last year. On the down side, because casual viewers are not overly familiar with the teams, ratings will definitely suffer. Last year’s Jazz/Lakers Game 1 drew a 4.1. | ||||
| NHL | Penguins/Capitals Game 1 | 1 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.1
|
| The Crosby/Ovechkin showdown may not be as big of a ratings draw as some might think, at least on NBC. The Capitals have not proven themselves to be a big national TV draw, as their games against the Rangers averaged a mere 0.7 on NBC. Still, expect a huge rise in ratings for Game 1; last year’s comparable Avalanche/Red Wings game drew a 0.7. | ||||
| NHL | Ducks/Red Wings Game 2 | 2 PM Sunday | NBC |
1.0
|
| This rematch of the 2007 Western Finals lacks the juice of Penguins/Capitals, but should hold its own in the ratings. Last year’s comparable game drew a 1.0. | ||||
| NASCAR | Russ Friedman 400 | 8 PM Saturday | FOX |
3.9
|
| NASCAR takes on Bulls/Celtics Game 7 head-to-head on Saturday night, but should easily win the ratings battle for a variety of reasons — not the least of which is the fact that the race is on broadcast, while the NBA game will be on cable. So far this season, all ten NASCAR races on FOX have seen declining ratings. Last year’s comparable game drew a 4.5. | ||||
| PGA | Quail Hollow Championship, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday | CBS |
3.0
|
| Tiger Woods’ presence will no doubt put a jolt into the ratings for what used to be the Wachovia Championship. Last year, final round coverage drew a 1.6. In ’07, when Woods won the event, it drew a 3.4. | ||||
