Weekend ratings predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
NFL	Washington/Giants or other regional action	FOX	13.2	14.8
The 14.8 rating for last Sunday’s Washington/Giants tilt marks a 14% increase over Cowboys/Browns last year (13.0), and ranks as the highest rated Week 1 NFL telecast since 2000.
NFL	Bears/Packers	NBC	11.0	12.6
Last Sunday night’s Bears/Packers tilt drew a 12.6 final rating on NBC, up 13% from an 11.2 for Bears/Colts last year, and the highest rated Week 1 Sunday Night Football game since ’06.
NFL	Cowboys/Buccaneers or other regional action	FOX	9.2	8.6
Regional NFL action featuring the Cowboys and Brett Favre‘s season debut scored an 8.6 rating on FOX last Sunday, up 69% from last year’s 5.1, and the network’s highest Week 1 rating in that telecast window since ’01.
NFL	Jets/Texans or other regional action	CBS	9.0	7.1
The 7.1 final rating for regional NFL action on CBS last Sunday was off 25% from a 9.4 last year, and marked the lowest rating for an NFL telecast on any network during Week 1.
College football	USC/Ohio State	ESPN	6.4	6.3
Last Saturday’s USC/Ohio State battle drew a 6.3 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 47% from a 4.3 for Miami/Florida last year. The game drew 10.6 million viewers, making it the most-viewed college football game in the 30-year history of ESPN.
College football	Notre Dame/Michigan	ABC	3.8	5.2
While ABC did not air the ratings blockbuster that was USC/Ohio State, the net still scored with coverage of Notre Dame/Michigan last week. Michigan’s victory over Notre Dame drew a 5.2 rating, up 79% from a 2.9 for comparable regional action last year, and up 49% from a 3.5 for Michigan/Notre Dame on NBC last year.
Tennis	U.S. Open semifinal, Clijsters/S. Williams	CBS	2.3	2.1
The 2.1 rating for last week’s Clijsters/S. Williams U.S. Open semifinal was even with a 2.1 for the Saturday night Henin/Kuznetsova women’s final in ’07. There was no comparable Saturday night match last year.
Tennis	U.S. Open semfinal, Federer/Djokovic	CBS	3.0	2.6
Last Sunday’s Federer/Djokovic U.S. Open semifinal drew a 2.6 final rating on CBS, off 13% from a 3.0 for the conclusion of the Murray/Nadal semifinal last year. Despite the decrease, Federer/Djokovic drew a higher rating than the Del Potro/Federer men’s final which aired the next day.
Tennis	U.S. Open women’s final, Clijsters/Wozniacki	CBS	1.7	1.1
Last Sunday’s Clijsters/Wozniacki U.S. Open women’s final drew a 1.1 U.S. rating on ESPN2, off 67% from a 3.3 for S. Williams/Jankovic on CBS last year. The 1.1 rating is the lowest for the women’s final of the U.S. Open since at least ’96.
Golf	BMW Championship, Final Round	NBC	3.1	2.3
Final round coverage of Tiger Woods‘ win at last week’s BMW Championship drew a 2.3 rating on NBC, up 92% from last year, but down 26% from ’07. This marks the lowest rating for final round coverage of a Woods victory since ’06.
NASCAR	Chevy Rock & Roll 400	ABC	4.0	3.5
The 3.5 rating for last Saturday’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400 — the first NASCAR race of ’09 on ABC — was off 17% from a 4.2 in ’07, but up 40% from a 2.5 for last year’s rain delayed race on ESPN.
MLB	Mets/Phillies or other regional action	FOX	1.3	1.2
The 1.2 rating for regional MLB coverage on FOX last week was off 8% from last year, and ranks as the lowest rating of the season for MLB on FOX.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Giants/Cowboys	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	13.1
The Cowboys officially open their brand new stadium against the rival Giants. Expect ratings for this big market rivalry to soar well above the 10.8 for Steelers/Browns in Week 2 last year.
NFL	Steelers/Bears or other regional action	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	12.3
Despite the presence of the defending Super Bowl champions and the #3 market Chicago Bears, expect ratings for Steelers/Bears to fall well short of the 15.3 rating for last year’s comparable Patriots/Jets game.
NFL	Patriots/Jets or other regional action	1 PM Sunday	CBS	7.8
Do not expect CBS to light up the ratings for its 1 PM NFL coverage. While Patriots/Jets may attract some eyeballs due to midweek hype, other matchups involving the Raiders and Bengals are unlikely to produce big ratings. Last year, comparable coverage drew an 8.0.
NFL	Saints/Eagles or other regional action	1 PM Sunday	CBS	8.7
No Cowboys, no Packers and no Bears for FOX this Sunday. That alone could make it tough for single game coverage on Sunday to match last year’s 9.5 rating.
College football	Michigan State/Notre Dame	3:30 PM Saturday	NBC	2.4
NBC’s first Notre Dame telecast of the season drew a mere 1.3 rating. Despite that stumble, last week’s 5.2 for Notre Dame/Michigan should give NBC some hope for this week’s Michigan State/Notre Dame tilt. The last time Notre Dame played Michigan State on NBC, the game drew a 2.0 rating.
College football	Tennessee/Florida	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	3.1
An offseason of hype, mostly due to Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin, should result in solid ratings for this rivalry game. Last year, Florida/Tennessee drew a 2.7 rating; the year before, the matchup drew a 2.6.
College football	USC/Washington or other regional action	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.5
Led by USC’s tilt against Washington, expect regional college football coverage to draw solid numbers for ABC Saturday afternoon. Regional coverage on the comparable date last year drew a 2.4.
College football	Texas Tech/Texas	8 PM Saturday	ABC	3.6
This early season battle of Texas rivals will not even come close to the 7.5 rating for the same matchup late last season, or the 7.0 rating Ohio State/USC drew on the comparable date last year.
NASCAR	Sylvania 300	2 PM Sunday	ABC	3.5
After a less-than-stellar 3.5 rating for last week’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400 on ABC, will ratings bounce back for the first race of the Chase for the Cup? Last year, the Sylvania 300 drew a 3.8 rating.
MLB	Cubs/Cardinals or other regional action	4 PM Saturday	FOX	1.4
After two straight weeks of season-low ratings, can FOX bounce back with MLB coverage this week? Coverage on the comparable date last year drew a 1.7.
WNBA	Sparks/Storm Game 3	5 PM Sunday	ESPN2	0.3
The 2009 WNBA Playoffs continue on ESPN2. With the league’s only big draw — the Lisa Leslie and Candace Parker led Los Angeles Sparks — facing elimination, will a (relatively) big audience tune in?

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.