First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse Racing | The Preakness Stakes, race portion | NBC |
7.0
|
5.3
|
| The race portion of The Preakness Stakes drew a 5.3 final rating on NBC last Saturday, down 22% from last year (6.8), down 4% from 2008 (5.5) and the lowest rating for the race since 2000. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Magic Game 1 | ABC |
4.3
|
4.5
|
| Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals drew a 4.5 final rating on ABC Sunday afternoon, even with Rockets/Lakers Game 7 last year (4.5), down 21% from Cavaliers/Celtics Game 7 in ’08 (5.7) — but up 45% from Jazz/Spurs Game 1 in ’07 (3.1), the last time a Conference Final game aired in that timeslot. | ||||
| NHL | Blackhawks/Sharks Game 1 | NBC |
1.4
|
1.3
|
| NBC drew a 1.3 final rating for Game 1 of the Blackhawks/Sharks series last Sunday, down 19% from Blackhawks/Red Wings Game 1 last year (1.6) and down 7% from both Flyers/Penguins Game 5 in ’08 (1.4) and Ducks/Red Wings Game 5 in ’07 (1.4). | ||||
| NASCAR | Autism Speaks 400 | FOX |
4.5
|
3.7
|
| Sunday’s Autism Speaks 400 on FOX drew a 3.7 final rating, down 8% from last year (4.0), down 18% from ’08 (4.5), and the lowest rating ever for a Sunday afternoon race on FOX. | ||||
| MLB | Phillies/Brewers (57%), Astros/Giants (25%) or Mariners/Rays (17%) | FOX |
1.7
|
1.4
|
| Regional MLB action featuring Phillies/Brewers drew a 1.4 final rating on FOX last Saturday, down 13% from last year (1.6) and down 22% from ’08 (1.8). Four of the six MLB telecasts on FOX this season have drawn ratings of 1.6 or lower. | ||||
| Golf (M) | Valero Texas Open (Second Round) | CBS |
0.7
|
0.8
|
| Valero Texas Open (Third and Final Rounds) |
1.5
|
1.3
|
||
| Ratings for last week’s Valero Texas Open were flat on Saturday and down 24% on Sunday. | ||||
| WNBA | Sparks/Mercury | ESPN2 |
0.2
|
0.3
|
| ESPN2 drew a 0.3 U.S. rating for last Saturday’s WNBA season opener between the Sparks and Mercury, down 50% from last year’s Shock/Sparks opener, which aired on broadcast network ABC. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Magic/Celtics Game 3 | 8:30 PM Saturday | ESPN | 3.9 |
| Conference Final ratings have already been down, and with both series 2-0, there is very little momentum entering this weekend’s games. Still, ratings have been solid — especially for the Magic/Celtics series, which has attracted the two largest audiences of the round. Look for Saturday’s Game 3 to hit a series low, but still do fairly well. ESPN has aired four Saturday night Conference Final games, drawing ratings of 1.9 (2003), 2.5 (2004), 2.6 (2005) and 3.4 (2006). The 2005 game came after a four-day break in a series where the road team won the first two games. | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Suns Game 3 | 8:30 PM Saturday | TNT | 4.7 |
| In 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, ratings for the first Sunday night Conference Final game (Game 3 in each year) were flat or down compared to the previous game in the series. Last year, Magic/Cavaliers bucked that trend, as the 5.4 for the Sunday night Game 3 easily topped a 4.4 for the Friday night Game 2. Will that trend resume this year? Games 1 and 2 of Lakers/Suns each drew a 4.4 rating. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Mets (49%), Cubs/Rangers (23%), Tigers/Dodgers (17%) or Red Sox/Phillies (10%) | 7 PM Saturday | FOX | 3.2 |
| Baseball on FOX heads into primetime for the first time since 2004. Since May ’08, 32 of the last 53 MLB telecasts on FOX have drawn less than a 2.0 rating, and only one telecast has hit a 3.0. Still, a primetime telecast featuring the #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #7 and #11 TV markets figures to put up good numbers. The aforementioned ’04 primetime telecast (Yankees/Red Sox, 4/16/04) drew a 3.6 rating. | ||||
| NASCAR | All-Star Race | 9 PM Saturday | Speed | 2.5 |
| NASCAR’s All-Star Race faces some stiff competition this week from the NBA and Major League Baseball. While the race should finish well behind its competitors Saturday night, look for the ratings to hold fairly steady with last year (2.4). | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Canadiens Game 4 | 3 PM Saturday | NBC | 1.2 |
| The NHL Conference Finals shift to NBC this weekend, after a bit of a slow start last week. NBC has aired just two Saturday afternoon Conference Final games in its history, drawing ratings of 0.9 and 1.1. Though Flyers/Canadiens is not exactly a blockbuster matchup, expect Saturday’s Game 3 to top those numbers. | ||||
| NHL | Sharks/Blackhawks Game 4 | 3 PM Sunday | NBC | 1.2 |
| The Blackhawks’ success can only be a good thing for the NHL. That said, it would be far better for ratings if their series with the Sharks was a little more competitive. Look for Sunday’s potential series-clinching Game 4 to decline slightly from last year’s Red Wings/Blackhawks tilt (1.3). | ||||
| Soccer | UEFA Champions League Final | 2:30 PM Saturday | FOX | 1.6 |
| The UEFA Champions League Final moves to broadcast TV this year, taking the afternoon timeslot usually reserved for baseball on FOX. Last year, the event drew a 0.9 rating on ESPN on a weekday afternoon. On a Saturday, expect those numbers to increase. The Euro 2008 final, the last international soccer match on one of the Big 4 broadcast networks, drew a 2.3 rating on ABC. Could this match top the NHL on NBC airing at the same time, or even potentially outdraw last week’s comparable afternoon MLB telecast on FOX (1.4)? | ||||
| Golf (M) | Byron Nelson Championship, Third Round | 3 PM Saturday | CBS | 0.8 |
| Byron Nelson Championship, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday | 1.3 | ||
| Last year’s Bryon Nelson Championship set the bar extremely low, with a 0.9 rating on Saturday and a mere 1.2 for final round coverage on Sunday. Could this year’s tournament go even lower? | ||||
