Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including the NASCAR Brickyard 400 and MLB on FOX.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golf (M) | British Open, Third Round | ESPN |
1.8
|
2.3
|
| Last Saturday’s third round of the British Open drew a 2.3 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 4% in ratings from last year, 2008 and 2007 (2.4 all three years) and the lowest rating for third round coverage of the event since ’88 (excludes 1999, when ABC coverage was preempted). | ||||
| Golf (M) | British Open, Final Round | ESPN |
2.6
|
2.1
|
| Final round coverage of the 2010 British Open drew a record low 2.1 U.S. rating on ESPN last Sunday, down 45% from last year’s final round on ABC (3.8), down 36% from 2008 (3.3) and down 43% from 2007 (3.7). The 2.1 U.S. rating is the lowest for final round coverage of any golf major since at least 1982. | ||||
| MLB | Rays/Yankees (72%) or Dodgers/Cardinals (27%) | FOX |
1.9
|
1.8
|
| Regional MLB action featuring Rays/Yankees drew a 1.8 final rating on FOX last Saturday, up 13% from coverage featuring Mets/Braves last year (1.6), but down 18% from 2008 (2.2). | ||||
| IndyCar | Honda Indy Toronto | ABC |
0.8
|
0.9
|
| ABC drew a 0.9 final rating for last Sunday’s IndyCar Honda Indy Toronto, down 10% from last year (1.0). | ||||
| Golf | American Century Championship | NBC |
0.7
|
0.5
|
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
|||
| Ratings for the American Century Championship declined 44% on Saturday and 30% on Sunday. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NASCAR | Brickyard 400 | 1 PM Sunday | ESPN | 3.8 |
| NASCAR returns to ESPN after declining ratings on both FOX and TNT. The Brickyard 400 is typically the highest rated NASCAR race on cable in a given year, and this year’s race should be no exception. Last year’s race drew a 4.1 U.S. rating, the lowest since 2000. Expect another decline this year, although the race should still finish ahead of the other notable auto race from Indianapolis Motor Speedway — the Indianapolis 500, which drew a 3.6 rating this year. | ||||
| MLB | Mets/Dodgers (51%), Rockies/Phillies (24%) or White Sox/Athletics (24%) | 4 PM Saturday | FOX | 1.8 |
| The last two weeks have brought fairly decent numbers to MLB on FOX — ratings of 2.1 and 1.8, respectively. With the nation’s top two markets facing off, expect another fairly decent number this week, although ratings should decline from last year’s comparable Cardinals/Phillies telecast (1.9). | ||||
| Golf (M) | RBC Canadian Open, Third Round | 3 PM Saturday | CBS | 0.9 |
| RBC Canadian Open, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday | 1.3 | ||
| Following record low ratings for the final round of the British Open, the golf season resumes with this week’s RBC Canadian Open. Though this year’s edition of the tournament will almost certainly outdraw last year’s rained out coverage (0.6 on Saturday, 0.7 on Sunday), topping 2008 (0.9 and 1.4, respectively) may be a tougher prospect. | ||||
| Basketball | U.S. Men’s National Team, Blue vs. White | 10 PM Saturday | ESPN2 | 0.5 |
| Do not expect a very large audience for Saturday’s USA Basketball scrimmage on ESPN2. For a point of reference, ESPN drew a 0.8 U.S. rating and 1.122 million viewers for a USA/Canada exhibition game during the lead up to the 2008 Olympics. | ||||
| Formula 1 | Grand Prix of Germany (taped) | 12 PM Sunday | FOX | 0.7 |
| Formula 1 ratings on FOX have been pretty consistent this year, with two races drawing a 0.7 final rating and a third drawing a 0.6. With that in mind, expect similar numbers for Sunday’s Grand Prix of Germany. | ||||
