Ratings and viewership will almost certainly decline for the 2010 Rangers/Giants World Series, but do not expect record low numbers.
The 2009 World Series featured the #1 market Yankees, who move the needle more than just about any franchise in sports. Their six-game victory over the #4 market Phillies averaged an 11.7 rating and over 19 million viewers on FOX, making it the highest rated, most-viewed World Series since 2004.
While this year’s series is unlikely to match last year’s Yankee-fueled numbers, the numerous predictions of record low ratings seem misguided.
The lowest rated, least-viewed World Series in history was Phillies/Rays two years ago (8.4, 13.635 mil). The series was not just a record low, it was a record low by a mile — much lower than the previous record of 10.1 and 15.812 million for Cardinals/Tigers two years earlier.
It is very unlikely that Rangers/Giants will dip below the 2008 series. For one, Phillies/Rays was plagued by rain, with Game 3 starting after 10 PM ET and Game 5 airing on two separate nights. The series would have set a record low anyway (just look at the 8.1 rating for the domed Game 2), but the rain certainly did not help.
Additionally, this series is friendlier from a TV market standpoint, with the Rangers and Giants hailing from the #5 (Dallas-Ft. Worth) and #6 (the Bay Area) television markets, respectively. While Phillies/Rays featured the #4 market (Philadelphia), it also featured the #14 market (Tampa-St. Petersburg).
Of course, market size does not determine how well a series will do in the ratings. It may help in some cases, but the real test for Rangers/Giants will be how it does outside of Dallas and San Francisco.
Neither team has the drawing power of the Yankees, one of the key reasons this year’s series will more than likely be down from last year. However, the Giants have proven that they can attract an audience, as their NLCS against the Phillies was the highest rated and most-viewed in four years (two of the previous three NLCS aired on cable).
Though some might attribute that to the Phillies, keep in mind that they played in the two previous NLCS — each against a bigger market opponent (the #2 market Dodgers) — and averaged smaller numbers both times. While this year’s NLCS lasted one game longer than the previous two, the numbers for Games 2, 4 and 5 were well above both 2009 and 2008 (Game 1 was down from both years; numbers for Game 3 were not available).
Also, do not discount that the Rangers’ ALCS drew four of the nine largest MLB postseason audiences ever on cable. While the Yankees’ presence had much to do with the strong numbers, it does not change the fact that large audiences watched the Rangers’ six-game victory.
Granted, that did not help the drawing power of the 2008 Rays, who entered the World Series after playing in the most-viewed MLB game ever on cable (Game 7 against the Red Sox). That said, the ’08 ALCS as a whole was not as strong a draw as this year’s series.
Rangers/Giants is likely to finish among the lowest rated World Series of all time, but it is difficult to imagine the series dipping below a 8.4. More likely, this series will average a rating somewhere between 9.5 and 10.5 — possibly finishing above not only the 2008 World Series, but the 2006 edition as well.
