Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for sporting events this weekend, including the NBA on ABC, the NHL on NBC, NASCAR on FOX, college basketball on CBS and ESPN, and golf on CBS.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Packers/Steelers	FOX	Rating: 45.1	Rating: 46.0
NFL	Packers/Steelers	FOX	Viewers: 107.012M	Viewers: 111.010M
Super Bowl XLV earned a 46.0 final rating and 111.010 million viewers on FOX last Sunday night, up 2% and 4%, respectively, from last year. The game ranks as the most-viewed program in the history of U.S. television, breaking the record set by Super Bowl XLIV.
NBA	Magic/Celtics	ABC	1.9	2.3
Elsewhere on Super Bowl Sunday, ABC drew a 2.3 final rating for the Celtics’ win over the Magic, up 44% from the same matchup last year. All five NBA games on ABC this season have had double-digit increases in ratings.
NHL	Penguins/Capitals	NBC	1.1	0.8
NBC earned a 0.8 final rating for last Sunday’s Penguins/Capitals game, off 27% compared to the same matchup last year.
Golf (M)	Phoenix Open, Third Round	CBS	1.0	1.7
Golf (M)	Phoenix Open, Final Round	CBS	1.6	1.8
Third and final round coverage of the Phoenix Open drew a 1.8 final rating on CBS Sunday, up 6% from last year’s comparable coverage of the Northern Trust Open. On Saturday, second and third round action earned a 1.7, up 21%.
College Basketball (M)	St. John’s/UCLA or #24 Illinois/Northwestern	CBS	1.0	1.0
CBS drew a 1.0 final rating for regional college basketball action last Saturday, up 25% from coverage in a later timeslot last year.
College Basketball (M)	Michigan State/#18 Wisconsin	CBS	0.9	0.9
Sunday’s Michigan State/Wisconsin game drew a 0.9 final rating on CBS, well below the last Super Bowl Sunday college basketball game on CBS (1.5).
College Basketball (M)	N.C. State/#5 Duke	ESPN	1.3	0.9
Last Saturday’s N.C. State/Duke matchup drew a 0.9 U.S. rating on ESPN, the second-highest rating of the day for college basketball on ESPN or ESPN2.
College Basketball (M)	#11 Kentucky/#23 Florida	ESPN	1.0	1.4
The top rated college baskeball game on the ESPN family of networks last Saturday was Kentucky/Florida, whose 1.4 rating was up 27% from last year’s comparable game.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NBA	Heat/Celtics	1 PM Sunday	ABC	3.2
Both on and off the court, the Heat and Celtics are the dominant teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. The budding rivals’ first two meetings this season, both on TNT, drew ratings of 4.6 (Opening Night) and 2.7 (November 11) — strong numbers not only for cable, but for broadcast as well. Strangely relegated to the 1 PM ET timeslot, Sunday’s game will not do as well as it could have in the 3:30 PM window. Still, expect big numbers. ABC’s highest rating for a 1 PM ET game was a 2.7 for Kings/Mavericks in January 2004.
NBA	Lakers/Magic	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	2.8
Of the NBA’s various marquee matchups, Lakers/Magic ranks near the bottom where TV ratings are concerned. Their meeting in the ’09 Finals averaged the lowest rating for a Laker NBA Finals since 1980, and their two nationally televised matchups last year drew ratings of 1.3 (TNT) and 2.1 (ABC) — not exactly blockbuster numbers. Still, with what should be a strong lead-in from Heat/Celtics, expect good numbers for the season’s first meeting between the teams.
NBA	Thunder/Warriors	8 PM Sunday	ESPN	0.8
The 23-29 Warriors host Kevin Durant and the Thunder in nightcap of Sunday’s ESPN/ABC NBA tripleheader. So far this season, ESPN has drawn ratings of 0.9 and 0.6 for its Sunday night NBA games.
NHL	Bruins/Red Wings	12:30 PM Sunday	NBC	0.9
So far this season, both of NBC’s indoor NHL telecasts have earned a 0.8 rating. Will Bruins/Red Wings reverse the trend?
NASCAR	Budweiser Shootout	8 PM Saturday	FOX	4.7
Last year was the lowest rated season ever of NASCAR on FOX, the second straight year the network’s coverage held that dubious distinction. Saturday’s unofficial season opener, the Budweiser Shootout, could be an indicator of the network’s fortunes for the season to come. In both last year and 2009, ratings declined for Bud Shootout, setting a trend that would continue for the rest of the season. In 2008, however, ratings improved for the event — and, coincidentally, 2008 was the last year FOX had an increase for its portion of the NASCAR schedule. Last year’s aforementioned race drew a 4.4.
NASCAR	Daytona 500 Qualifying	1 PM Sunday	FOX	2.2
Just five years ago, Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying drew a 3.9 rating on NBC. Last year’s coverage drew a mere 1.6. While getting back to 2006 levels seems out of the question, look for Sunday’s coverage to have at least a modest increase.
Golf (M)	Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	CBS	1.3
Golf (M)	Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	CBS	1.8
So far this season, all four PGA Tour windows on CBS have had increases in ratings compared to last year. Look for that trend to continue with this weekend’s Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Last year, coverage drew a 1.2 on Saturday and a 1.6 on Sunday.
College Basketball (M)	#18 Kentucky/#24 Vanderbilt	1 PM Saturday	CBS	0.9
CBS offers viewers a battle of SEC rivals on Saturday afternoon, as Kentucky faces Vanderbilt. Look for ratings to drop from last year’s comparable Maryland/Duke clash (1.0).
College Basketball (M)	#12 Purdue/Illinois	1 PM Sunday	CBS	0.8
It won’t take much for Sunday’s Purdue/Illinois matchup to top last year’s comparable Ohio State/Illinois game (0.7).
College Basketball (M)	#4 Pittsburgh/#10 Villanova	9 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.5
This week’s Saturday Primetime game on ESPN features a battle of top ten Big East rivals, as Pittsburgh faces Villanova. Look for a slight improvement over last year’s comparable Kentucky/Tennessee tilt (1.4).

(Ratings for some events from nielsen.com)

The Ratings Game: Thunder Ratings Up Nearly 50% on FS Oklahoma

Jon Lewis

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.