Ratings predictions for the NBA’s All-Star Weekend, college hoops, NASCAR and the NHL’s “Hockey Day in America.”
First, the results of last week’s predictions:
— NBA: Warriors/Thunder. Prediction: 2.8; final rating: 3.4.
— NBA: Spurs/Knicks. Prediction: 1.6; final rating: 1.9.
— CBB: Gonzaga/St. Mary’s. Prediction: 0.6; final rating: 0.8.
— PGA: Pebble Beach final round. Prediction: 3.0; final rating: 2.7.
— NHRA: Pomona eliminations. Prediction: 0.6; final rating: 0.8.
This week’s predictions (all times Eastern):
NBA All-Star Game (8:30 PM Sunday, TNT & TBS)
- Ratings for the NBA All-Star Game have been hamstrung in recent years by some extenuating circumstances. Last year, the game took place in Toronto – a Canadian market that does not count toward U.S. television ratings. The previous two years, it faced unusually tough competition in the form of the Olympic Games (2014) and a star-studded Saturday Night Live reunion special (2015). As a result, ratings have been stuck at a healthy-though-not-particularly-impressive 4.3 in each of the past three years. With this year’s game back in the U.S. and little major competition, perhaps this year’s game will break away from the pack. Prediction: 4.5.
NBA All-Star Saturday Night (8 PM Saturday, TNT)
- Even with last year’s celebrated dunk contest between Zach Levine and Aaron Gordon, ratings declined for NBA All-Star Saturday Night for the third time in four years. If this year’s ratings decline from last year’s 3.2, the Saturday night festivities would at least tie a 10-year ratings low. A slight bounce back seems more likely. Prediction: 3.3.
NBA All-Star Celebrity Game (7 PM Friday, ESPN)
- Ratings for the NBA All-Star Game are much stronger than one would think, given the quality of the event. Last year’s 1.3 rating topped ESPN’s NBA season average of 1.1. Ratings for the annual B-list b-ball extravaganza rose as high as 1.5 from 2011-14 and have not dipped lower than 1.2 in a decade. Prediction: 1.4.
NHL “Hockey Day in America”: Capitals/Rangers & Red Wings/Penguins (12:30 and 3 PM Sunday, NBC).
- Expect mixed results for NBC’s annual “Hockey Day in America” doubleheader. Red Wings/Penguins is unlikely to match last year’s comparable outdoor game between the Blackhawks and Wild (1.1). Capitals/Rangers, on the other hand, should have no trouble stepping over the low bar set by Penguins/Sabres last year (0.7). Predictions: 0.8 and 1.0.
College Hoops: Virginia/North Carolina (8:15 PM Saturday, ESPN).
- It will get clobbered by NBA All-Star Saturday Night, but look for Saturday’s matchup of top 25 ACC rivals to score a modest increase in ratings over last year’s comparable Purdue/Indiana game (0.9). Prediction: 1.1.
NASCAR: The Clash at Daytona (8 PM Saturday, Fox Sports 1).
- Given how low ratings have been the past two years, one would imagine that NASCAR should rebound at least somewhat this season. The bar has been set low enough that another year of declines would be a major red flag. With that said, do not expect any ratings recovery to begin at this week’s preseason race, which has moved down the dial from “big FOX” to Fox Sports 1. Ratings should drop double-digits from last year’s 2.8. Prediction: 2.1.
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