Kentucky-UNC and the rest of the Elite Eight highlight this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on the docket, the struggling trio of the NBA, NASCAR and PGA Tour.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NCAA Tournament: Gonzaga-Northwestern. Prediction: 5.6; final rating: 5.2.
— NCAA Tournament: Louisville-Michigan. Prediction: 4.8; final rating: 4.7.
— NCAA Tournament: Kentucky-Wichita State. Prediction: 6.9; final rating: 6.3.
— NCAA Tournament: UNC-Arkansas & South Carolina-Duke. Predictions: 1.7 and 2.5; final ratings: 2.6 and 3.4.
— NBA regular season: Cavaliers-Clippers. Prediction: 1.4; final rating: 1.0.
— NASCAR Cup Series from Phoenix. Prediction: 3.4; final rating: 3.3.
— PGA Tour: final round of Arnold Palmer Invitational. Prediction: 1.6; final rating: 1.4.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NCAA Elite Eight: Kentucky-North Carolina (5:05 PM Sunday, CBS)
- Two college basketball bluebloods square off Sunday in the biggest game of the weekend. Few teams move the needle like Kentucky and North Carolina, who played in seven of the ten highest rated games during the regular season (their head-to-head meeting in December was third). Their last meeting in the NCAA Tournament — the 2011 Elite Eight — posted an 8.9 rating, still tied as the highest for any game outside of the Final Four since 2005. With this year’s NCAA Tournament already delivering some of its best numbers in a quarter-century, look for Sunday’s matchup to score blockbuster numbers. Prediction: 9.4.
NCAA Elite Eight: Florida-South Carolina (2:20 PM Sunday, CBS)
- Sunday’s undercard may be better suited to a Saturday afternoon in October than the final weekend of March. A regional matchup of football schools does not seem like the recipe for particularly impressive college basketball ratings, but last year’s Syracuse-Virginia game set a low enough bar on TBS (4.5) that ratings should still increase. Prediction: 5.2.
NCAA Elite Eight: Kansas-Oregon (8:49 PM Saturday, TBS)
- Kansas is every bit the blue blood as Kentucky and UNC, but at least this season, it was not nearly as strong a TV draw. Oregon, meanwhile, is better known for its football — and arguably for its wild uniform designs — than for basketball. Do not expect bad numbers for the season’s final game on cable, but do not expect particularly impressive ones either. Last year, Villanova-Kansas had a 6.7 on CBS. Prediction: 6.0.
NCAA Elite Eight: Gonzaga-Xavier (6:09 PM Saturday, TBS)
- There is plenty of intrigue surrounding Saturday’s matchup of underestimated #1 seed Gonzaga and surging #11 Xavier. Yet that may not be enough to overcome the fact that neither team is a traditional draw. Look for ratings hover around last year’s 4.6 for Oklahoma-Oregon. Prediction: 4.5.
NBA regular season: Thunder-Rockets (3:30 PM Sunday, ABC)
- One has to imagine that the NBA and ABC were banking on the NCAA scheduling Sunday’s Elite Eight games in primetime, ala last year. Why else would the league have scheduled ABC’s Sunday Showcase for 3:30 PM ET, right in the heart of NCAA Tournament coverage? Even with one of the NBA’s best individual matchups center stage — Russell Westbrook against James Harden in a battle of MVP candidates — expect another week of poor ratings. Prediction: 1.3.
NASCAR Cup Series from Fontana (3:30 PM Sunday, FOX)
- NASCAR ratings have declined for three straight weeks after holding steady at Daytona, hitting record-lows at both Las Vegas (dates back to 1998) and Phoenix (dates back to 2005). Will ratings keep sputtering this week at Fontana, or can NASCAR finally start to turn things around? The race had a 4.0 rating last year and has not dipped below 3.8 since at least 1998. Prediction: 3.5.
PGA/WGC-Match Play: Final round (2 PM Sunday, NBC)
- Like the NBA and NASCAR, the PGA has been struggling in recent weeks. Ratings have fallen for seven consecutive Sundays and that streak is unlikely to end this week. Last year’s Match Play benefitted from an unusually light sports schedule that included zero basketball or NASCAR (2.0). No such luck this time. Prediction: 1.4.
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