The Duke-UNC rivalry highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on the docket: the NBA on ABC, the PGA in Mexico, NASCAR and U.S. women’s national team soccer.
First, the results of last week’s predictions:
— NASCAR Daytona 500: Prediction: 7.0; final rating: 6.6.
— NASCAR Xfinity Series at Daytona. Prediction: 1.5; final rating: 1.4.
— NBA regular season: Bulls-Cavaliers. Prediction: 1.9; final rating: 1.5.
— NHL Stadium Series: Flyers-Penguins. Prediction: 1.2; final rating: 1.1.
— PGA: final round of Honda Classic. Prediction: 2.0; final rating: 1.8.
This week’s predictions (all times ET):
College basketball: Duke-North Carolina (8:15 PM Saturday, ESPN)
- Even with the Blue Devils on the lower end of the Top 25, the Duke-UNC rivalry remains one of college basketball’s sure-fire television draws. Ratings were flat for their first meeting last month, but Saturday’s rematch should score a slight bump. Last year’s game was lower-than-usual thanks to an earlier start time (1.9). Prediction: 2.0.
College basketball: Purdue-Northwestern (4:30 PM Saturday, CBS)
- Northwestern makes its first CBS appearance in six years this weekend, the result of a feel-good season that will likely end in the program’s first NCAA Tournament appearance. Even so, do not expect particularly good numbers for this week’s game against Purdue, which despite having clinched a share of the Big Ten title is not the highest-profile of teams. Last year’s Maryland-Indiana matchup had a 1.3. Prediction: 1.0.
NBA regular season: Warriors-Knicks (3:30 PM Sunday, ABC)
- The injury to Kevin Durant is unlikely to rob the Warriors of their mass appeal, even if it makes them more vulnerable on the court. Their matchup with the Knicks this weekend should pull good numbers, even with New York’s woeful record. Under very similar circumstances on the same weekend last year, Golden State’s loss to the woeful Lakers had a solid 2.4. Prediction: 2.5.
NBA regular season: Clippers-Bulls (8:30 PM Saturday, ABC)
- The Bulls have played well lately, beating the Cavaliers and Warriors over the past week, but their general mediocrity since April 28, 2012 has taken its toll in the TV ratings. Chicago has played in four of the eight lowest rated NBA games on ABC since 2011, and seems destined to make it five of nine with this week’s matchup against the Clippers. The one bright spot for ABC is that the Bulls set such a low bar on the comparable weekend last year — an NBA primetime-low 1.2 against the Rockets — that ratings should at least increase. Prediction: 1.3.
PGA Tour: final round of WGC-Mexico Championship (2 PM Sunday, NBC)
- The PGA Tour is running the risk of slipping into an early season slump. Five of the past seven windows on CBS and NBC have declined, including the past four final round telecasts. This week’s debut of the WGC-Mexico Championship seems likely to continue the trend, as its predecessor Doral was one of the better early season draws. Last year, the final round had a 2.6. Prediction: 2.1.
NASCAR Cup Series from Atlanta (2:30 PM Sunday, FOX)
- Last year’s Atlanta race delivered the worst rating for NASCAR’s second race of the season since 2000, with its 4.1 well below the previous low of 5.3. Coming off of a Daytona 500 that could only match the previous year’s historic low, one can be sure that NASCAR is hoping that its numbers finally start to bounce back. Prediction: 4.4.
Women’s soccer: United States-England (5 PM Saturday, FOX)
- The last time the USA women’s soccer team played on the FOX broadcast network, they delivered a soccer ratings record 12.9. Of course that was the Women’s World Cup final and this week’s stakes are far lower. Given the general performance of non-tournament soccer on broadcast television, even a mere 1.0 would be a solid performance. Prediction: 0.8.
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