Weekend Ratings Predictions: Winter Olympics & More

It was just eighteen months ago that the Rio Summer Olympics, which seemed made-for-TV given its proximity to the East Coast, failed to meet expectations. It was the lowest rated Summer Olympics since Sydney in 2000, sinking 18 percent from London four years earlier.

Four years ago, the last Winter Olympics faded quickly after a strong start, finishing as the second-lowest rated Olympics ever in primetime.

With that as a backdrop, expectations should be low for this year’s PyeongChang Olympics. If the last two Games are any indication, the Olympics is beginning to experience the same kind of viewer erosion afflicting other major TV events, most notably the NFL. PyeongChang is not as inconvenient a location as one might think — most of the major events will take place in the morning in South Korea, which is primetime in the U.S. — but it is also not a particularly interesting host. NBC is doing its typical yeoman’s job turning heretofore anonymous athletes into stars, but if Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt could not save ratings in Rio, what chance do Nathan Chen or Mikaela Shiffrin have?

Thursday’s primetime coverage had a 9.0 rating, down 20 percent from 2014. A similar drop for the Opening Ceremony would result in a 13.6 rating, the lowest since 2006. Frankly, even that seems a little high. In the last three Winter Olympics, the Opening Ceremony has declined between 8 and 19 percent from the previous Summer Games. That would equal a rating between 11.2 and 12.8. Prediction: 12.2.

Perhaps anticipating declines for this year’s Olympics, NBC is not protecting its primetime window the way it used to. Gone is the West Coast tape-delay that kept viewers in the Mountain and Pacific time zones waiting two-to-three extra hours. Also gone is NBC’s exclusivity. Just as in Rio, NBC’s primetime coverage will compete with concurrent action on NBCSN. It stands to reason that ratings will fall from the comparable nights in 2014, when coverage drew a 13.9 and 14.4. Predictions: 10.2 and 11.8.

While they have not had as poor a season as the Cavaliers, the Spurs are simply not themselves this season. The absence of Kawhi Leonard has San Antonio completely off the radar. Of course even with a healthy Leonard, Saturday’s matchup with Golden State was guaranteed to plunge — last year’s comparable game was Kevin Durant’s return to Oklahoma City (3.4). Prediction: 2.2.

On Sunday, the new-look Cavaliers face the rival Celtics in the season’s third meeting between LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. The first two games posted strong ratings, a 3.3 for their Opening Night matchup (+94 percent) and a 2.0 for their January 3 meeting (+54%). The Winter Olympics will probably keep the numbers lower than they otherwise would have been, and a little intrigue is lost with Isaiah Thomas’ trade to Los Angeles. Even so, ABC should easily top last year’s 1.9 rating for Spurs-Knicks (1.9). Prediction: 2.6.

The PGA season has gotten off to a strong start on CBS, with the network’s first four telecasts each up double-digits. Expect the good times to continue at Pebble Beach, usually one of the stronger PGA events. Entering the weekend, Phil Mickelson is in the top five and Jordan Spieth is lurking in the distance. The one complicating factor is the Winter Olympics, which could limit any gains to the single-digits. Last year, third and final round coverage scored ratings of 1.8 and 2.7 respectively. Predictions: 2.0 and 2.8.

After a rough season last year, NASCAR returns with this weekend’s “Clash” at Daytona. The unofficial opener had a 2.8 rating in 2016, the last time it was run as scheduled. That was on FOX. The last time FS1 aired the event (not counting last year’s rainout), it had a 2.0 rating. Prediction: 1.6.