Predicting March Madness ratings and more, including Tiger Woods at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
NCAA Tournament: UMBC-Kansas St. (7:45 PM Sun TruTV)
DETROIT, MI – MARCH 15: The March Madness graphic is displayed on the arena signage board during an open public practice during the practice day before the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament on March 15, 2018 at Little Caesars Arena, in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)
Fresh off of the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history, #16 seed UMBC returns to the court Sunday against Kansas State. The Retrievers’ stunning rout of #1 overall seed Virginia may be the talk of the tournament, but it was not enough to get them on CBS, TNT or TBS Sunday.
Outside of sustained runs like Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 or George Mason in 2006, lower seeds do not generally draw well after pulling major upsets. It is thrilling to watch a small underdog school take down one of the bluebloods, but the way the bracket is set up, knocking off a top seed means facing a middle-of-the-pack team in the next round. Without the David vs. Goliath aspect, all one is left with is an unknown team versus a middling one, and that combination is not exactly a ratings driver. Hence the relegation to TruTV.
Two years ago, after #15 seed Middle Tennessee upset #2 Michigan State, their next game against #10 Syracuse was the lowest rated of the day. Given the historic nature of UMBC’s win, perhaps this year’s results will be different. In the same window last year, USC-Baylor had a 1.1 rating. Two years ago, Northern Iowa-Texas A&M had a 1.5. Prediction: 1.4.
The cushiest timeslots during the first week of the NCAA Tournament are Sunday afternoon and evening on CBS. Last year, those windows delivered ratings of 6.3 (Kentucky-Wichita State) and 6.5 (Kansas-Michigan State), easily the highest of the opening week. Do not expect this year’s ratings to be quite as strong, as neither matchup is as appealing on paper. Still, with trendy title pick Michigan State and defending champion UNC both in action, expect solid numbers nonetheless. Predictions: 5.5 and 5.6.
CBS has Duke and Kentucky back-to-back Saturday afternoon, a pretty good recipe for high college basketball ratings. Even so, expect mixed results. Last year’s comparable games — Wisconsin-Villanova and Gonzaga-Northwestern — had ratings of 5.9 and 5.2 respectively. The Duke game will be hard pressed to match the former, while the Kentucky game should easily surpass the latter. Predictions: 5.2 and 5.9.
Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2 PM Sat & Sun NBC)
Tiger Woods’ return to prominence has already paid dividends for NBC and the PGA Tour. His near-win at Tampa Bay delivered the highest PGA Tour rating outside of The Masters in four years. He is not doing quite as well at this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational — tied for 14th place as of early Saturday — but he does not have to contend every week to have an impact. While last week may have raised expectations, the fact is Woods’ mere presence can move the needle, especially for tournaments he has not played in recent years. Since Woods last played at Bay Hill in 2013, the event has not once cracked a 2.0 rating. Last year, third and final round coverage had ratings of 1.1 and 1.4. Prediction: 2.0 and 2.9.
NASCAR Cup Series: Fontana (3:30 PM Sun FOX)
NASCAR is off to an even rougher start than last year, with the first four Cup Series races this season down double-digits — and three of the four hitting all-time record lows. The last two races have failed to reach a 3.0 rating, unheard of this early in the season. Do not expect things to turn around at Fontana. Last year’s 3.2 rating (the worst in at least 20 years) seems unreachable given the current trend. Prediction: 2.8.
Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.
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