NBA Playoffs Ratings Predictions & More

PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 06: Cleveland Cavaliers Forward LeBron James (23) slams down a dunk in the second half during the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers on April 06, 2018 at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

NBA Playoffs ratings predictions and more, including the Stanley Cup Playoffs, NASCAR and UFC.

Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.

NBA Playoffs: Spurs-Warriors & Pacers-Cavs (3 PM Sat & 3:30 PM Sun ABC)

NBA ratings rebounded during the regular season and it seems likely that will continue into the playoffs. The grim inevitability of another Cavs-Warriors finals sapped interest in last year’s postseason — the least-watched entering the finals since at least 2010. This year’s playoffs is more unpredictable. Cleveland is a #4 seed and Golden State a #2, the latter missing its primary star Stephen Curry for at least the first round. While it would surprise no one to see another Cavs-Warriors rematch in the finals, the possibility of new blood should sustain the early rounds.

This weekend, ABC has both Cleveland and Golden State facing familiar playoff foes. On Saturday, Golden State hosts San Antonio in a rematch of last year’s conference finals. Any intrigue from Curry’s absence is cancelled out by the continued absence of Kawhi Leonard. Even so, expect a big increase in ratings over last year’s comparable Pacers-Cavs game (2.5). Prediction: 3.0.

On Sunday, LeBron James begins his quest for an eighth consecutive finals in unusually vulnerable position — the #4 seed. Cleveland swept Indiana last season, but all four games were close. With the Pacers much improved after trading Paul George, and the Cavaliers taking a step back after trading Kyrie Irving, an upset is not completely out of the question. Game 1 will almost certainly decline from last year’s 3.7 for Blazers-Warriors, but the numbers should be on par with Pistons-Cavs in the same window two years ago (3.4). Prediction: 3.5.

NBA Playoffs: Heat-Sixers Game 1 (8 PM Sat ESPN)

The Sixers’ youth, market size, and recent success make them a potentially strong playoff draw. Going for their 17th straight win against Miami – not far removed from being a big draw itself — expect a sizable increase over last year’s comparable Grizzlies-Spurs game (1.9). Prediction: 2.6.

NBA Playoffs: Wolves-Rockets Game 1 (9 PM Sun TNT)

The Rockets have the best record in the NBA and are arguably favorites to win the title, but that has not yet translated into the kind of drawing power generated by Cleveland or Golden State. Expect Houston’s first round series against Minnesota to pale in comparison to last year, when they faced Oklahoma City in a battle of MVP candidates. Last year’s comparable Thunder-Rockets Game 1 had a 3.0. Prediction: 2.7.

Stanley Cup: Maple Leafs-Bruins Game 2 (8 PM Sat NBC)

U.S. TV networks are not usually eager to feature Canadian teams, but the Maple Leafs (and Canadiens) are exceptions. The Toronto-Boston series got off to a shaky start on NBCSN Thursday, with ratings down 18 percent from Predators-Blackhawks last year. Game 2 should fare better, if for no other reason than last year’s Predators-Blackhawks game set a historically low bar (0.9). Prediction: 1.0.

Stanley Cup: Penguins-Flyers Game 3 (3 PM Sun NBC)

The last time the Penguins and Flyers met in the playoffs, the series delivered big numbers for NBC. Game 3 of their 2012 matchup had a 2.0 rating, a number that no first round game has cracked in the five years since. This year’s Game 3 will not be as big a draw — sports ratings generally are not where they were early in the decade — but expect a solid number nonetheless. Last year’s comparable Wild-Blues game had a 0.9. Prediction: 1.5.

NASCAR Cup Series: Bristol (1 PM Sun FOX)

Five of the first six NASCAR races this season have hit an all-time record-low. That streak will probably end at Bristol, if only because ratings prior to 1999 are largely unavailable. The last time the race was run as scheduled in 2016, it had a 3.4 rating — the lowest since at least ’98. If this year’s race is run (the start time has already been pushed up to avoid rain), it seems likely that ratings will be even lower. Prediction: 2.7.

UFC on FOX 29 (8 PM Sat FOX)

The last six editions of UFC on FOX rank among the seven lowest rated MMA cards ever on broadcast television. Last year’s April event had a mere 1.2 rating — anything lower would equal or set an all-time low. Prediction: 1.0.

Last week’s results

— The Masters. Predictions: 5.5 (Sat.) and 8.3 (Sun.); results: 5.3 and 7.9
— NBA: Thunder-Rockets. Prediction: 1.9; result: 1.7
— NCAA Men’s Hockey Final. Prediction: 0.32; result: 0.35
— MLB: Mets-Nationals. Prediction: 0.9; result: 1.0

NBA Viewership Up Across the Board

Jon Lewis

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.

Charles Barkley is pictured at the 2026 NBA Finals. Courtesy: Derek Futterman, Sports Media Watch

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Comments 3

Matt says:

8 years ago

Ratings might be up big, as it’s winter in much of the midwest. 12 inches or more of snow. Meaning many people watching TV.
John Gilkes says:

8 years ago

I don’t live in an nba city; I do live in an nhl town. All games for the first round are on rsn’s then it’s exclusive NBC for rd 2 through the Cup. Is that the same situation in the NBA?
- Paulsen says:
  
  8 years ago
  
  All NBA first round games on cable will also be available on RSNs in the local markets.