Ratings Predictions: NBA Playoffs, Stanley Cup & More

NBA ratings rebounded during the regular season and it seems likely that will continue into the playoffs. The grim inevitability of another Cavs-Warriors finals sapped interest in last year’s postseason — the least-watched entering the finals since at least 2010. This year’s playoffs is more unpredictable. Cleveland is a #4 seed and Golden State a #2, the latter missing its primary star Stephen Curry for at least the first round. While it would surprise no one to see another Cavs-Warriors rematch in the finals, the possibility of new blood should sustain the early rounds.

This weekend, ABC has both Cleveland and Golden State facing familiar playoff foes. On Saturday, Golden State hosts San Antonio in a rematch of last year’s conference finals. Any intrigue from Curry’s absence is cancelled out by the continued absence of Kawhi Leonard. Even so, expect a big increase in ratings over last year’s comparable Pacers-Cavs game (2.5). Prediction: 3.0.

On Sunday, LeBron James begins his quest for an eighth consecutive finals in unusually vulnerable position — the #4 seed. Cleveland swept Indiana last season, but all four games were close. With the Pacers much improved after trading Paul George, and the Cavaliers taking a step back after trading Kyrie Irving, an upset is not completely out of the question. Game 1 will almost certainly decline from last year’s 3.7 for Blazers-Warriors, but the numbers should be on par with Pistons-Cavs in the same window two years ago (3.4). Prediction: 3.5.

The Sixers’ youth, market size, and recent success make them a potentially strong playoff draw. Going for their 17th straight win against Miami – not far removed from being a big draw itself — expect a sizable increase over last year’s comparable Grizzlies-Spurs game (1.9). Prediction: 2.6.

The Rockets have the best record in the NBA and are arguably favorites to win the title, but that has not yet translated into the kind of drawing power generated by Cleveland or Golden State. Expect Houston’s first round series against Minnesota to pale in comparison to last year, when they faced Oklahoma City in a battle of MVP candidates. Last year’s comparable Thunder-Rockets Game 1 had a 3.0. Prediction: 2.7.

U.S. TV networks are not usually eager to feature Canadian teams, but the Maple Leafs (and Canadiens) are exceptions. The Toronto-Boston series got off to a shaky start on NBCSN Thursday, with ratings down 18 percent from Predators-Blackhawks last year. Game 2 should fare better, if for no other reason than last year’s Predators-Blackhawks game set a historically low bar (0.9). Prediction: 1.0.

The last time the Penguins and Flyers met in the playoffs, the series delivered big numbers for NBC. Game 3 of their 2012 matchup had a 2.0 rating, a number that no first round game has cracked in the five years since. This year’s Game 3 will not be as big a draw — sports ratings generally are not where they were early in the decade — but expect a solid number nonetheless. Last year’s comparable Wild-Blues game had a 0.9. Prediction: 1.5.

Five of the first six NASCAR races this season have hit an all-time record-low. That streak will probably end at Bristol, if only because ratings prior to 1999 are largely unavailable. The last time the race was run as scheduled in 2016, it had a 3.4 rating — the lowest since at least ’98. If this year’s race is run (the start time has already been pushed up to avoid rain), it seems likely that ratings will be even lower. Prediction: 2.7.

The last six editions of UFC on FOX rank among the seven lowest rated MMA cards ever on broadcast television. Last year’s April event had a mere 1.2 rating — anything lower would equal or set an all-time low. Prediction: 1.0.