Ratings Predictions: Pacers-Cavs Game 7 & More

Since the NBA moved to a best-of-seven first round format in 2003, there have been 23 game sevens. The highest rated was Bulls-Celtics in 2009 — the finale of one of the NBA’s most dramatic series in playoff history — which had a 4.4 rating on TNT in primetime. Not far behind, Mavericks-Spurs had a 4.2 rating on ABC in 2014 and Nuggets-Lakers a 4.1 on TNT in 2012.

Those games had in common high-profile championship contenders. Boston was the defending champion in 2009, the Spurs were eventual champions in 2014 and the Lakers were still in the conversation — if barely — in 2012.

Yet there has never been a first round Game 7 with as high-profile a team as the Cleveland Cavaliers. LeBron James and company are the three-time defending conference champions and despite finishing the season as the #4 seed were widely assumed to make it four in a row. James has never played an opening round Game 7 before and has not faced elimination before the conference finals since 2010.

In nearly two decades on the public stage, nothing involving LeBron has generated a normal level of interest. His high school days included appearances on Sports Illustrated and ESPN and a gifts controversy that resulted in his temporary loss of eligibility. His pro career has been dominated by his chronically looming free agency and endless speculation of his next destination — fueled to no small degree by The Decision and his eventual return to Cleveland. Each season since joining the Heat in 2010 has been marked by in-house drama such as the bump of Erik Spolestra, the firing of David Blatt, the trading of Kyrie Irving and all of the subsequent upheaval. Not to mention the ancillary social issues, from Annie Leibowitz‘ bizarre Vanity Fair cover to Fox News hosts using him for cheap outrage fodder. All of which is to say that stars have lost in the first round before, but if James loses it will be like no first round loss in NBA history. The analysis, recriminations and speculation about the future would dwarf the rest of the postseason.

The last time James lost in prior to the NBA Finals was eight years ago, when the Cavaliers bowed out to the Celtics in the second round. The Game 6 clincher had a 5.7 rating on ESPN, still the highest for a first or second round game ever on cable. Sunday’s game will not be as high, given the bright-and-early 1 PM ET Sunday timeslot. Even so, expect Game 7 to blow past ABC’s best-ever rating in that window, a 3.9 for Spurs-Pistons on Christmas 2005. Prediction: 4.5.

In the NBA’s other Game 7, Boston faces Milwaukee in a matchup of young teams. Celtics-Bucks has been a middling draw so far, topping out at a 2.5 for Game 4 on ABC (an unimpressive rating for broadcast television). Saturday’s finale should benefit from the fact that Golden State is playing later in the night, so an audience that might have otherwise skipped the game may tune in later in the second half. The last Saturday night Game 7 was Spurs-Clippers in 2015, which had a 2.8 rating the night of the Floyd Mayweather–Manny Pacquiao fight. Prediction: 2.6.

The Golden Knights miracle run has flown under the radar this season, and while hockey fans might be conditioned to blame ESPN for the relative obscurity, perhaps some blame belongs with NBC. Saturday night marks the first time Vegas has played on the NBC broadcast network, and just the 11th time it has played on national TV overall (regular season and playoffs). By comparison, Detroit had 13 national appearances, the Rangers 15, and Chicago 18 — and none of those three sniffed the postseason.

Even with limited national exposure, Vegas has been a good draw so far this postseason. All four games against Los Angeles increased over the comparable window last year and Game 1 against San Jose was NBCSN’s most-watched late night semifinal opener in eight years. It will be tough to keep the momentum going Saturday night; last year’s comparable game was Penguins-Capitals (1.5). Prediction: 1.4.

In the post-Blackhawks era, Penguins-Capitals has been the NHL’s most reliable postseason draw. Expect this weekend’s Game 2 to score a big increase over last year’s comparable window, which pit St. Louis against Nashville (1.0). Prediction: 1.4.

NASCAR’s ratings woes have been well-chronicled and there is no end in sight. Ratings always spike at Talladega, but with each race down double-digits this season, it is hard to imagine the numbers will come close to last year’s 3.5, itself the lowest for the race in more than 20 years. With the NBA likely providing stiffer-than-usual competition, it is fair to expect a steep decline. Prediction: 2.8.