Ratings Predictions: Mahomes-Brady & More

The Patrick Mahomes hype has turned the normally-forgettable Chiefs into one of the NFL’s primary attractions. With Mahomes leading Kansas City against Tom Brady and the Patriots this weekend, NBC gets one of sports TV’s favorite storylines — the “passing of the torch” that comes when an exciting young rookie faces an established veteran. Sunday’s game will comfortably hit a multi-year high (that’s “will” not “should”). Giants-Broncos had a mere 9.4 last year and Colts-Texans an even lower 8.1 in 2016. Prediction: 12.2.

Coming off of an AFC Championship Game appearance, the Jaguars have become one of the NFL’s featured teams this season. Sunday marks Jacksonville’s second appearance in the NFL national window in the season’s first six weeks. Yet it is not entirely clear yet whether the nation is sold on a team led by Blake Bortles. That does not matter this week, as the Cowboys will do all the heavy lifting for CBS. Last year’s comparable Steelers-Chiefs game had a solid-by-today’s-standards 12.0. Prediction: 12.5.

Short of Yankees-Red Sox, it is hard to imagine a better ALCS matchup than Boston against the defending champion Astros. The teams finished with the two best records in baseball during the regular season, combining for 211 wins. Each has its fair share of recognizable stars, from Houston’s Altuve and Verlander to Boston’s Sale and Betts. Last year’s ALCS did not set as high a bar as one would think, considering the Yankees were involved. Game 1 had a 3.6 on FS1 and Game 2 a 3.8 on FOX. Not bad numbers by any stretch, but also nothing out of reach for this year’s series. Do not be surprised by an increase. Predictions: 3.5 and 4.2.

Swap the Cubs for the Brewers and you can expect a decline in ratings. No disrespect to Milwaukee, but the Cubs’ drawing power, well-established over the past three years, is just not replaceable. Ratings for Game 2 of the NLCS will surely sink from last year’s 4.1 on TBS — the timeslot shift from Sunday night to Saturday afternoon will not help. Prediction: 3.0.

What a matchup this would have been had LSU won last week. Instead of a titanic top five matchup, CBS gets a solid consolation prize — its fifth Top 25 game in the past six weeks. Expect a big increase over last year’s comparable Auburn-LSU game (2.3) and the highest college football rating of the weekend. Prediction: 3.4.

Neither team is in the top ten, but Saturday night’s matchup of Wisconsin and Michigan still has playoff implications. There is no question that ratings will rise from last year’s mere 2.0 for Utah-USC. Prediction: 3.1.

NASCAR has fallen so far in recent years that the past two weeks constitute its strongest stretch of the season — a rare bump at Charlotte and a smaller-than-usual decline at Dover. Can the ‘good’ times continue this week at Talladega? NBC has its work cut out for it. Last year’s 2.8 rating will be tough to match, given this year’s spring Talladega race on FOX only had a 2.9. Prediction: 2.3.