Ratings Predictions: Brady-Rodgers, Bama-LSU & More

The NBC hype machine has been in overdrive for this Sunday’s matchup of Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers — and with good reason. Brady and Rodgers are arguably the two biggest stars in the NFL, and their teams are two of the league’s biggest draws. A substantial rating seems virtually assured, so long as the game is not an outrageous blowout.

The NFL used to have a titanic QB matchup every year in Brady vs. Peyton Manning. With Brady and Rodgers in opposing conferences, Sunday marks just the second time they have ever met. The previous meeting back in 2014 delivered a whopping 17.6 rating on CBS, surpassing every regular season window since. That number is out of the question this week. No primetime game this century has exceeded a 17.0 rating — and given the NFL’s downturn in ratings over the past few years, even a 15.0 is unlikely.

If not at 2014 levels, expect impressive numbers nonetheless. So far this season, no NFL window has exceeded the 13.1 rating for the Week 1 national window on FOX. Prediction: 14.4.

Sunday’s NFL undercard pits the unbeaten Rams against the 7-1 Saints in one of the season’s better matchups. Ratings inched up for the Rams’ win over the Packers last weekend, no small feat given last year’s comparable window featured the Cowboys. Can L.A. beat Dallas again this weekend? In the same window last year, Chiefs-Cowboys had a 12.5. Prediction: 12.3.

It is not quite ‘game of the century’ territory like their 2011 meeting, but Alabama and LSU square off Saturday night in the first top five matchup of the season. The Tide are a heavy favorite entering the game, making it a bit less dramatic than the usual #1 vs. #3 matchup. Even so, the ratings should still be very strong. Alabama-LSU has become one of college football’s premier rivalries, and with the playoff implications at play, even a blowout should set a season-high. The current high-water mark is a 5.3 (Ohio State-Penn State), and last year’s meeting between the teams had a 3.9. Prediction: 7.1.

For just the third time in the past five years, Notre Dame will play on ESPN. Saturday’s matchup against Northwestern will get crushed by Alabama-LSU, but expect a healthy number nonetheless. With Notre Dame in the top five, and a direct lead-in from Penn State-Michigan, expect ESPN to more-than-double last year’s comparable window (Oregon-USC: 0.9). Prediction: 2.0.

Kentucky is not one of the SEC’s traditional draws, at least in football, but with the Wildcats in the top ten, their matchup against Georgia this weekend should do well. One major obstacle: ESPN has Penn State-Michigan in the same window. Even so, look for ratings to increase over Florida-Arkansas last year (2.6). Prediction: 3.2.

ESPN has one of the bigger Big Ten games this season as Michigan hosts Penn State. While Alabama-LSU will be the biggest draw of the weekend, look for ESPN to approach a cable season-high for Saturday’s game. The current mark is a 3.4 for Virginia Tech-FSU on Labor Day. Prediction: 3.7.

NASCAR closes out a brutal season on cable with Sunday’s Texas race. Not a single race on cable this season has cracked a 2.0 rating, and that streak will not end this weekend. Last year’s comparable race had a 1.6. Prediction: 1.3.

The Breeders Cup Classic moves back to the afternoon this year. While it will avoid Alabama-LSU, it will still face formidable college football competition. Expect ratings to fall from last year’s six-year low of 1.3. Prediction: 1.0.