Predicting Cowboys-Saints ratings and more, including Week 4 college football games and NASCAR’s “Roval” at Charlotte.
NFL: Cowboys-Saints (8:20p Sun NBC)
The absence of Drew Brees takes a little of the luster off of Cowboys-Saints, but NBC should still expect strong numbers for one of the NFL’s glamour matchups. New Orleans proved last week that they can draw even with Brees sidelined; their win over Seattle posted the highest Week 3 rating in four years. This week’s game is likely to hit a high of its own. Sunday Night Football has not cracked even a 10.5 rating in Week 4 since 2015 — when it drew a 14.1 for Cowboys-Saints. Prediction: 12.8.
NFL: mostly Vikings-Bears (4:25p Sun CBS)
The NFL national window has posted an increase in each week this season, a streak that could continue on Sunday. While Vikings-Bears is not the greatest quarterback matchup, it does pit a pair of tradition-rich 2-1 teams. Last year’s comparable window, which featured Saints-Giants, set a reachable bar with a 12.1. Prediction: 12.5.
CFB: Ohio State-Nebraska (7:30p Sat ABC)
ABC’s Saturday Night Football gets a Big Ten matchup for the first time this season as Ohio State faces unranked Nebraska. Ratings will surely plunge from last year’s 5.3 for a top-ten Ohio State-Penn State game, but on a ho-hum college football Saturday, it should still top the charts. Prediction: 3.3.
CFB: Mississippi-Alabama (3:30p Sat CBS)
Alabama is favored by 38 over Mississippi Saturday, which would constitute a nailbiter compared to the Tide’s 55-point win last year or its 63-point win in 2017. CBS might be hoping for a flashback to the middle of this decade, when Mississippi reeled off back-to-back upsets of Alabama. Not likely. Luckily for the network, last year’s Tennessee-Georgia game set a low bar (2.3). Prediction: 2.6.
MLB: mostly Cubs-Cardinals (7p Sat FOX)
A shift from the afternoon to primetime is usually a good recipe for a ratings increase, but with the Cubs out of the playoff picture, a decline seems likely for Saturday’s MLB on FOX season finale. Last year’s comparable window, which featured the same matchup in an earlier 1 PM ET window, had a 1.4. Prediction: 1.2.
NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Charlotte (2:30p Sun NBC)
Ratings have increased for 12 Cup Series races this season, the most in a single year since 2013. It would make sense that the Charlotte “Roval” — one of just four races to increase last season — would join that list. Then again, back-to-back gains might be too much to ask, especially if the novelty of the “Roval” wears off. Last year’s race had a 1.95. Prediction: 2.0.
WNBA Finals: Sun-Mystics Game 1 (3p Sun ESPN)
Eastern Conference teams are 5-19 in WNBA Finals games this decade, and 0-15 if one excludes the Indiana Fever. The East is a lock to fare better this year, given that Connecticut is facing Washington for the title. Also a lock? Ratings for Game 1 on ESPN will increase over last year’s opener on ESPNEWS. Prediction: 0.32.
Last week’s results
— CFB: Notre Dame-Georgia. Prediction: 5.3; result: 5.4
— CFB: Michigan-Wisconsin. Prediction: 3.4; result: 3.1
— NFL: mostly Ravens-Chiefs. Prediction: 9.0; result: 8.3
— NFL: Rams-Browns. Prediction: 11.0; result: 10.8
— NFL: mostly Broncos-Packers or Dolphins-Cowboys. Prediction: 8.8; result: 10.8
— MLB: Phillies-Indians. Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.42
— NASCAR Cup Series: Richmond. Prediction: 1.2; result: 1.1
— IndyCar: Laguna Sega. Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.5
