Ratings predictions: CFP semis, Week 17 and more

After five years of the College Football Playoff, it is clear that semifinal ratings depend more on the calendar than on anything else. The four New Year’s Day games have ranged from an 11.4 to a 15.2. The six games outside of New Year’s Day have ranged from a 9.1 to 10.7, including last year’s 9.4 and 9.9.

While any rating above 9.0 qualifies as strong — particularly on cable, and particularly in this TV era — it is hard to imagine that anyone had single-digit ratings in mind when the playoff was being developed. Given college football’s popularity, one would have expected its ‘final four’ to comfortably clear a 10, even an 11, rating in most years. As it is, those numbers seem only to be in reach every three years.

Maybe this will be the year that the playoff breaks through on a date other than New Year’s Day. It seems doubtful.

Peach Bowl: #4 Oklahoma-#1 LSU (4p): Heisman winner Joe Burrow is a charismatic figure, and his quarterback matchup with former Alabama star Jalen Hurts is compelling. Still, LSU is a two-touchdown favorite over Oklahoma, and blowouts have been as big a factor as any in the soft numbers for previous semifinals. In addition, LSU has historically been a weak draw in these situations, with each of their BCS national championship appearances declining from the previous year. Perhaps this time is different, but the gut feeling here is that ratings could rank among the lowest yet for a CFP game. The current mark is a 9.1 for Clemson-Oklahoma in 2016. Prediction: 8.9.

Fiesta Bowl: #3 Clemson-#2 Ohio State (8p): Ohio State is back in the playoff for the first time in three years. Their last appearance was another Fiesta Bowl matchup against Clemson, a 31-0 Tiger blowout that averaged a 9.8 rating. This year’s game figures to be closer, as Clemson is favored by a field goal. If the game is closer, it stands to reason that ratings will be higher. Last year’s late window (Alabama-Oklahoma) averaged a 9.9. Prediction: 10.0.

It is not the worst matchup in the world, but Penn State-Memphis will have a hard time matching last year’s pre-playoff matinee: Florida-Michigan in the Peach Bowl (5.0). Ratings should also trail the last non-semifinal Cotton Bowl, Ohio State-USC in primetime two years ago (5.3). Prediction: 4.2.

For the first time since 2013, the Cowboys’ playoff hopes come down to the final game of the season. Dallas needs a win and an Eagles loss to make the postseason, and 92 percent of the country will get either their game against Washington or Philadelphia’s matchup with the Giants. While CBS will offer solid competition in the same timeslot, expect FOX to score the NFL’s highest Week 17 rating in four years — since Vikings-Packers on NBC in 2015 (13.8). Prediction: 13.3.

CBS gets a win-or-go-home game on Sunday as the Titans face the Texans. While the network has assigned its top team of Jim Nantz and Tony Romo to the game, there is one problem: viewers really do not care about the AFC South. NBC had a similar matchup between the Titans and Colts last year and it had a subpar 9.3 rating. With FOX offering tough competition, CBS should see its ratings dip from last year’s comparable window (mostly Browns-Ravens: 9.5). Prediction: 8.7.

Two of the top teams in the NFC battle for playoff positioning in the final game of the regular season. The stakes are high, with both teams facing the prospect of a first-round bye or opening the playoffs on the road. While it lacks the urgency of a win-or-go-home game, the quality of the teams should help ratings comfortably surpass last year’s 9.3 for Titans-Colts. Prediction: 12.2.

The rash of injuries this NBA season has forced the league to get creative with its schedule. Hence ESPN adding Mavericks-Lakers Sunday night, its first NBA game on an NFL Sunday since 2015. The Lakers may well enter the game on a five-game losing streak and without LeBron James. Combine that with the presumably tough NFL competition and a low rating seems likely. Even so, Sunday’s game still gives ESPN a better chance in the ratings than the game it replaced, Pelicans-Warriors earlier this month. Prediction: 0.8.

Expect the Louisville-Kentucky rivalry to bounce back after some lean years. The Cardinals are back to relevance, ranking third in the country. The game is back on broadcast television, and in a late afternoon timeslot at that. Even with competition from the College Football Playoff, ratings should easily top last year on ESPN2 (0.6) and 2017 on CBS (1.3). Prediction: 1.5.