Ratings predictions: NFL Week 1, US Open, WNBA Finals

After a dud to open the season, the NFL figures to provide a more entertaining slate of games on Sunday. For the second-straight year, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers open their season against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Last year, they played in an entertaining, tightly-contested Kickoff Game that was the highest rated and most-watched season opener since 2016. Another close game is expected this time around as Tampa Bay is favored by only a field goal. Given the teams and stars involved, even a blowout should post a sharp increase over last year’s unusually soft 9.6 rating for Bears-Rams. Can the ratings approach last year’s 13.4 for their Kickoff Game? Less likely.

NFL Sunday Night Football: Buccaneers-Cowboys (8:20p Sun NBC). Prediction: 12.4 rating, 23.6M viewers.

For the second-straight year, CBS and FOX air competing doubleheaders in Week 1 of the season. As one would expect, the networks cannibalized themselves last season and neither posted a particularly strong individual rating (though the combined audience was of course quite strong). Two years ago, when FOX had the lone late window in Week 1, the network drew a 13.2 rating for coverage featuring Buccaneers-Saints. Last year, it scored just an 8.3 for its Week 1 late window (mostly Packers-Saints) and was outdrawn head-to-head by CBS at a 10.0 (mostly Browns-Chiefs). Needless to say, FOX was reportedly not enthused about the new Week 1 format.

Expect similar results for this year’s head-to-head. FOX again has the Packers, this time against the division rival Vikings. CBS again has the Chiefs, this time against the Cardinals. If the Packers-Vikings game is as close as the oddsmakers predict (Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite) that may be enough to give FOX a slight win.

NFL: mostly Packers-Vikings (4:25p Sun FOX). Prediction: 9.7, 17.3M.
NFL: mostly Chiefs-Cardinals (4:25p Sun CBS). Prediction: 9.0, 16.6M.

Monday Night Football begins a new era with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, but there is little evidence that fans tune in (or out) because of the announcers. The game is the real story, and ESPN/ABC has a compelling matchup as Russell Wilson returns to Seattle in his first game since leaving the Seahawks. Just like last season, MNF begins the new year with a simulcast on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, the latter of the three networks carrying the Peyton and Eli Manning-fronted “Manningcast.” Given the storyline, expect ratings to pull ahead of last year’s 8.7 for Ravens-Raiders.

NFL Monday Night Football: Broncos-Seahawks (8:15p Mon ESPN/ABC). Prediction: 8.9, 17.6M (1.6M for the ManningCast).

Serena Williams was the dominant storyline in the first week of the US Open, headlining the primetime window in four of the tournament’s first five nights and delivering some of the biggest tennis audiences ESPN has ever seen. Since her third-round defeat, the focus shifted to Coco Gauff and Nick Kyrgios, then to Frances Tiafoe. Now on the final day of play, the last two standing are 19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud, who will not only battle for the men’s title on Sunday but for the #1 ranking in the world.

Men’s tennis has been dominated for so long by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic that its finds itself in a conundrum – needing new blood but still dependent on those familiar faces. The rise of Alcaraz in particular may be exactly what the sport needs, but it seems unlikely that Sunday’s match will do particularly well in the ratings. The last time none of the tennis “big three” made the US Open final two years ago, the audience was in the 1.5 million range. Look for a better result this year, though still below the two million mark.

US Open men’s final: Casper Ruud – Carlos Alcaraz (4p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 1.85M viewers.

Las Vegas Aces owner Mark Davis is none-too-pleased that his team’s WNBA Finals opener is taking place on the same day and time as his Raiders’ season opener. Nor should be anyone associated with the WNBA. It is an exercise in self-sabotage to open a championship series on an NFL Sunday — much less on Week 1 of the season — but not uncommon for the WNBA.

The past two years have been marked by viewership milestones for the WNBA, including the league’s largest audience in 14 years last Sunday — 905,000 for Game 3 of the Las Vegas-Seattle semifinal. The big difference between last Sunday and this Sunday is of course the competition. There were no NFL games last week and a full slate of games this time around. That should mean the difference between an audience just shy of the million-viewer mark and one under half a million.

Not helping matters is the presence of Connecticut, a lower-profile, smaller-market team than the one it vanquished in Chicago. The last time the Sun made the finals three years ago, it was the least-watched title series since 2013 — despite going the full five games. The WNBA would have no doubt preferred a big-market matchup of Seattle and Chicago featuring arguably the league’s two best known players, Sue Bird and Candace Parker.

For Sunday’s Game 1, it will be hard for viewership to fall too far — if at all — given last year’s low bar. Sky-Mercury opened with just over 450,000, also facing the NFL.

WNBA Finals Game 1: Connecticut-Las Vegas (3p Sun ABC). Prediction: 463,000.