The new Nielsen “Big Data + Panel” era has corresponded with record audiences but no shortage of detractors, and now one of the biggest sports properties is shifting away from the methodology.
NASCAR will no longer report Nielsen “Big Data + Panel” figures for its races, returning to the “panel-only” methodology that had been the currency until September of last year, its Senior Vice President/Broadcasting & Innovation Brian Herbst told Sports Media Watch Tuesday. The news was first reported by Austin Karp of Sports Business Journal on Monday.
“I think in general after we look under the hood — both from a metered market perspective as well as from a demographic perspective, looking at all of those splits — I would say that the panel-to panel methodology, at least for NASCAR, [is] a lot more stable, a lot more intuitive than what we were seeing on the ‘Big Data’ side,” Herbst told SMW.
Unlike most sports properties, NASCAR has not seen any meaningful lift from “Big Data + Panel” and is not expecting any significant change to its viewership by returning to panel-only. During the Fox Sports portion of the season that concluded with Watkins Glen earlier this month, NASCAR Cup Series viewership was up 1% on a panel-only basis and down 1% using the “Big Data + Panel” methodology, a 2% difference that Herbst described as “pretty negligible.”
The advantage of panel-only over “Big Data” would seem to be less about the size of the audience than its underlying makeup. “I think where it’s pretty revealing and helpful — at least to a property that’s trying to get better and improve the viewership and interest in the sport — is digging into metered market data, demographic data, that’s a little bit more intuitive on a panel-to-panel only basis.”
Specifically, Herbst suggested that because NASCAR overindexes in “C and D” (rural) counties it is “probably disadvantaged” under “Big Data” — noting that “audiences that overindexed with C and D counties aren’t receiving the same lift from ‘Big Data’ than some of the properties that overindexed in A and B counties.”
NASCAR has always had a more rural audience than the other sports properties, and in the days when overnight ratings were still being regularly circulated — a preliminary metric tracking only the top metered markets — it generally fared better worse in the major market overnights than in the final national ratings, a reversal of the trend for other leagues.
As for demographic data, shifting from “Big Data” to panel-only actually eliminates one of the positive trends for NASCAR this season, the double-digit increase in adults 18-34 it was enjoying earlier in the year. Those figures are “closer to flat” on a panel-to-panel basis, Herbst said.
One of the main criticisms of the “Big Data + Panel” methodology has concerned the reliability of its demographic data and what critics have described as wild swings in those estimates. The Video Advertising Bureau, an industry group representing the networks, released a report late last year arguing that “Big Data + Panel is unstable, unpredictable and decimating demographics.”
VAB president and CEO Sean Cunningham, a vocal critic of Nielsen, described “deep instability on the big-volume trading demos of 25-54, 18-49 and 18-34.” Nielsen retorted that the VAB analysis “is seriously flawed and manipulated” in a statement to The Current: “From what we have seen, the VAB incorrectly pulled our data, and the bureau does not know how to do a proper ratings analysis. The VAB is wasting the time and money of its members.”
NASCAR, it should be noted, was not critical of Nielsen. “Nielsen has one of the most difficult jobs in the sports industry in terms of trying to accurately measure viewership in a time of great change and fragmentation. I’m watching [Monday’s] Sabres-Canadiens game on my iPad, the Thunder-Spurs game on my TV, and I’m doing emails at the same time,” Herbst said. “Getting all of that right is a monumental challenge. And it’s Nielsen’s task and responsibility to develop the most accurate methodology for the entire sports and entertainment ecosystem that they possibly can.”
For the time being, that is apparently not “Big Data + Panel.” Herbst: “I’ve looked at NASCAR data for over a decade and have a decent sense on market trends and demographic trends, and once we kind of looked under the hood and went data point by data point, I do think at least for now — we’ll continue to work with Nielsen on the methodology changes that they’ll make later this year in August or September — but at least for now, a better representation of the NASCAR audience and viewership profile is this panel to panel comp for the balance of 2026.”
NASCAR is most prominent property to publicly break with “Big Data + Panel,” but it is not the first. Last year, CW owner Nexstar issued a statement publicly criticizing the rollout of “Big Data + Panel” and describing the metric as “fundamentally flawed,” citing a “sudden and substantial discrepancy” in viewership for its WWE NXT series.
