First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NBA on ABC, Lakers/Celtics. Prediction: 9.2. Final rating: 8.5. Ratings for the NBA Finals are well under expectations, but the games are still doing very well in the ratings. Game 2 on Sunday was the lowest rated of the series, drawing an 8.5, but still won the night and gave ABC its best Sunday night ratings among key male demos in over two years, excluding the Academy Awards.
- The Belmont Stakes on ABC. Prediction: 11.9. Final rating: 9.0. The 9.0 rating for The Belmont Stakes pales in comparison to previous years when there was the chance of a Triple Crown winner. Still, the race portion (6:15 to 7:11 PM) drew a higher rating than the first two games of the NBA Finals.
- French Open on NBC, Federer/Nadal. Prediction: 1.7. Final rating: 1.5. Rafael Nadal’s dismantling of Roger Federer last Sunday was no hit with viewers. The 1.5 rating for the men’s final at the French Open is down 17% from a 1.8 for the same match-up last year. Surprisingly, the Ivanovic/Safina women’s final on Saturday drew a higher rating and more viewers.
- NASCAR on TNT, Pocono 500. Prediction: 3.3. Final rating: 3.9. After a winter of increasing ratings for races on FOX, the season debut of NASCAR on TNT was the highest rated, most watched show in all of cable last week.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Celtics/Lakers, 9 PM Sunday — In recent years, NBA Finals ratings have increased dramatically for Game 5. In the ’05 Finals, the Game 5 rating was up 18% from the average of the first four games. In ’06, that jump was 14%. Look for a similar jump for Celtics/Lakers Game 5, even with Boston holding a 3-1 lead. Prediction: 10.0.
- U.S. Open on NBC, Final round, 3 PM Sunday — NBC is expecting big ratings for coverage of this year’s U.S. Open, which will last into prime time this year. Last year, the final round of the U.S. Open drew a 6.4 rating, with Tiger Woods finishing second. Prediction: 7.9.
- NASCAR on TNT, LifeLock 400, 2 PM Sunday — NASCAR got off to a great start on TNT last Sunday, with the Pocono 500 seeing its ratings increase by 30%. Look for a similar jump for the LifeLock 400; last year, the race on the comparable date drew a 3.2 rating. Prediction: 3.7.
