First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Final rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Nuggets/Mavericks Game 3 | ESPN |
1.7
|
2.0
|
| The Nuggets’ controversial Game 3 win over the now-vanquished Mavericks drew a 2.0 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday afternoon, up 25% from a 1.6 for Pistons/Magic Game 4 in the same window last year, and up 33% from a 1.5 for Cavaliers/Nets Game 3 in ’07. | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Hawks Game 3 | ABC |
2.8
|
3.2
|
| ABC drew a 3.2 final rating for last Saturday night’s Cavaliers/Hawks Game 3, even with Celtics/Cavaliers Game 3 in ’08, but down 6% from a 3.4 for Suns/Spurs Game 3 in ’07. | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Rockets Game 4 | ABC |
4.4
|
3.2
|
| The only game in the Lakers/Rockets series to see declining ratings was last Sunday’s Game 4. The 3.2 for the Rockets’ surprisingly easy win marks a 22% drop from a 4.1 for Lakers/Jazz Game 4 last year, but was up 14% from a 2.8 for Pistons/Bulls Game 4 two years ago. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Magic Game 4 | TNT |
2.6
|
3.2
|
| The 3.2 for the Celtics’ buzzer-beating win over the Magic last Sunday night was up 33% from a 2.4 for Hornets/Spurs Game 4 in the same window last year and up 10% from a 2.9 for Jazz/Warriors Game 4 in ’07. | ||||
| Golf | The Players Championship, Final Round | NBC |
3.5
|
3.6
|
| The 3.6 for the final round of The Players Championship is up 16% from a 3.1 last year, and is tied as the highest rating for final round coverage of the event since ’03. | ||||
| NASCAR | Southern 500 | FOX |
4.2
|
4.0
|
| Once again, NASCAR ratings declined on FOX. The 4.0 for last Saturday night’s Southern 500 was off 17% from a 4.8 last year, and marks the lowest rating for the Southern 500 since 2000. Still, the race beat the NBA on ABC head-to-head and finished as the highest rated sporting event of the weekend. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net |
Prediction
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Rockets/Lakers Game 7 | 3 PM Sunday | ABC |
7.0
|
| For the first time since 2002, the Lakers play a Game 7 on broadcast. Ratings for the Lakers/Rockets series have been stellar, with the lone exception being Game 4 on ABC last Sunday. Last year, a close Cavaliers/Celtics Game 7 drew a 5.7 on ABC; three years ago, a Cavaliers/Pistons blowout Game 7 drew a 6.1. | ||||
| NBA | Magic/Celtics Game 7 | 8 PM Sunday | TNT |
5.1
|
| The defending champion Celtics play their fourth Game 7 of the past two years on Sunday night. While lacking the drawing power of Rockets/Lakers, the Magic/Celtics series has put up strong numbers on TNT and ESPN. Last year, a Monday night Spurs/Hornets Game 7 drew a 4.3 on TNT; in ’06, a Mavericks/Spurs and Clippers/Suns Game 7 doubleheader on TNT drew ratings of 4.7 and 4.0, respectively. | ||||
| Horse racing | The Preakness | 4:30 PM Saturday | NBC |
6.2
|
| The second leg of the Triple Crown figured to attract some extra eyeballs this year, thanks to the hype concerning the filly Rachel Alexandra. Last year, the race segment of the Preakness drew a 5.5/13. | ||||
| NHL | Blackhawks/Red Wings | 3 PM Sunday | NBC |
1.6
|
| Forget Ovie and Sid the Kid. This is the NHL’s real dream matchup. Two big markets — two Original Six teams — battling in a rematch of last January’s Winter Classic. Unfortunately for NBC, Game 1 airs directly opposite Game 7 of Rockets/Lakers. Still, expect an improvement over the 1.4 Flyers/Penguins Game 5 drew on the comparable date last year. | ||||
| NASCAR | All Star Race | 7 PM Saturday | Speed |
2.3
|
| Entering Saturday’s All Star Race, every single NASCAR telecast on FOX has seen declining ratings. Will that trend continue on Speed Channel? Last year’s All Star Race drew a 2.5 U.S. rating. | ||||
