Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Vikings/Saints	FOX	26.1	30.6
The Saints’ overtime win over the Vikings drew a massive 30.6 final rating on FOX last Sunday, up 39% from last year’s comparable Ravens/Steelers game (22.0), up 5% from Giants/Packers in ’08 (29.0), and the highest rating for any Conference Championship game since ’96.
NFL	Jets/Colts	CBS	24.9	26.3
CBS drew a 26.3 final rating for last week’s Jets/Colts AFC Championship Game, up 20% from Eagles/Cardinals last year (21.9), and up 2% from Chargers/Patriots in ’08 (25.7)
NHL	Penguins/Flyers	NBC	0.8	1.0
Last Sunday’s Penguins/Flyers battle drew a 1.0 final rating on NBC, up a tick from a 0.9 for last year’s comparable game.
NCAA BB (M)	Texas/Connecticut	CBS	1.3	1.7
Texas/Connecticut last Saturday drew a 1.7 final rating on CBS, the third-highest of the season for a college basketball game on the network.
NCAA BB (M)	Duke/Clemson	ESPN	1.0	1.3
ESPN drew a 1.0 U.S. rating for Duke/Clemson last Saturday night, the network’s second-highest college basketball rating of the week.
Figure Skating	U.S. Figure Skating Championships (Women’s Free Skate)	NBC	3.4	3.4
Primetime coverage of the U.S. Figure Skating Championships drew a 3.4 final rating on NBC last Saturday, up 26% from last year (2.7), up 3% from ’08 (3.3), and the highest rating for the event since ’06.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NBA	Lakers/Celtics	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	3.4
The two most storied franchises in the NBA face off on ABC Sunday afternoon. Last season, ABC drew a 5.3 rating for Celtics/Lakers on Christmas Day, a number that was no doubt helped by a large holiday audience and a lack of competition. On an ordinary Sunday in January, do not expect the numbers to be nearly as big. Excluding Christmas games, the highest rated regular season NBA game since ’02 was Lakers/Cavaliers last February (3.8).
NBA	Nuggets/Spurs	1 PM Sunday	ABC	1.5
The Nuggets are coming off of a trip to the Conference Finals, and the Spurs are a perennial contender. That said, neither team has much mainstream appeal. With that in mind, expect ratings to drop from last year’s Mavericks/Celtics blowout (1.7).
NFL	Pro Bowl	7:20 Sunday	ESPN	4.1
The NFL may be trying to drum up interest in the Pro Bowl by moving it to the week before the Super Bowl, but a shift from broadcast to cable will no doubt result in lower ratings. Last year’s Pro Bowl drew a 5.4 rating on NBC, and in the three years since the event moved back to broadcast television, the ratings have not dropped below a 4.6. The last time the game aired on ESPN, it drew a 3.7 rating.
Golf (M)	Farmers Insurance Open, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	CBS	1.2
Golf (M)	Farmers Insurance Open, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	CBS	2.0
Golf makes its return to broadcast television, still under the shadow of the Tiger Woods situation. Despite Woods’ absence, expect ratings to hold steady for this week’s Farmers Insurance Open — as Woods did not play in last year’s event, either.
NCAA BB (M)	Duke/Georgetown	1 PM Saturday	CBS	1.5
Look for this Top 10 battle of college basketball royalty to put up much better numbers than last year’s comparable telecast (0.9).
NCAA BB (M)	Florida/Tennessee or Minnesota/Ohio St.	1 PM Sunday	CBS	1.1
Expect college basketball coverage on CBS to hold its own opposite the NBA on ABC and the NHL on NBC.
NHL	Red Wings/Penguins	12:30 PM Sunday	NBC	1.2
This rematch of the past two Stanley Cup Finals should put up good numbers for NBC Sunday. The highest rating ever for a regular season NHL telecast on NBC (excluding the Winter Classic) was a 1.3 for the network’s inaugural telecast in ’06.
Extreme	Winter X Games	7 PM Sunday	ESPN2	0.7
Bumped from ESPN due to the Pro Bowl, look for the Winter X Games to see a decline in ratings on Sunday night. Last year’s Sunday night window drew a 1.1 U.S. rating on ESPN.