The Daytona 500 highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on the docket, NBA Saturday Primetime and the NHL Stadium Series.
First, the results of last week’s predictions:
— NBA All-Star Game: Prediction: 4.5; final rating: 4.2
— NBA All-Star Saturday Night: Prediction: 3.3; final rating: 3.0
— NBA All-Star Celebrity Game: Prediction: 1.4; final rating: 1.1
— NHL “Hockey Day in America”: Capitals/Rangers & Red Wings/Penguins. Predictions: 0.8 and 1.0; final ratings: 0.6 and 0.8
— NASCAR: The Clash at Daytona. Prediction: 2.1; final rating: 1.2 (rain PPD)
This week’s predictions (all times ET):
NASCAR Daytona 500 (2 PM Sunday, FOX)
- Like NASCAR as a whole, the Daytona 500 has fallen on hard times in the ratings department. Of the ten lowest rated editions of the race (dating back to 1979), half have come in the past seven years alone. That includes last year, when ratings fell to a 6.6 — the second-worst on record and a far cry from the record-high 11.3 set just ten years earlier. With NASCAR coming off of a 2016 season in which the final 12 races posted year-over-year declines, and with its decade-long downturn becoming front page news on The Wall Street Journal this past week, the sport can ill-afford another drop for its marquee race. Prediction: 7.0.
NASCAR Xfinity Series at Daytona (3:30 PM Saturday, FS1)
- Ratings for the Xfinity Series opener at Daytona have been on the decline the past five years, steadily dropping from 2.9 in 2012 to 2.2 the following year, 1.8 in 2014, 1.7 in 2015 and finally 1.4 last year. Another drop would not be surprising, but perhaps this year will mark a turnaround. Prediction: 1.5.
NBA regular season: Bulls/Cavaliers (8:30 PM Saturday, ABC)
- Though the Bulls have beaten the Cavaliers both times they’ve played this season, they are still a sub-.500 team at the bottom of the playoff standings. Even with the LeBron James–Dwyane Wade subplot, do not expect much of a rating for this week’s NBA Saturday Primetime. Prediction: 1.9.
NHL Stadium Series: Flyers/Penguins (8 PM Saturday, NBC)
- NHL outdoor games have been fading in popularity over the past few years, with last year’s Stadium Series games delivering ratings 1.0 and 1.1 — the lowest all-time for outdoor games on broadcast television. Look for this weekend’s Flyers/Penguins matchup to avoid those low marks, if for no other reason than the strength of the rivalry. Prediction: 1.2.
PGA Tour: final round of the Honda Classic (3 PM Sunday, NBC)
- Ratings have dropped for the past three final round PGA Tour telecasts entering this weekend’s Honda Classic. Look for that streak to continue. Last year’s 2.1 tied the tournament’s third-highest final round mark in the past decade. Prediction: 2.0.
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