Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 2 of the NFL season, college football games on ESPN, ABC and CBS, NASCAR on ESPN and more.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Cowboys/Washington | NBC |
14.0
|
15.0
|
| NBC earned a 15.0 final rating for last Sunday’s Cowboys/Washington matchup, up 19% from Bears/Packers last year (12.6), up 34% from Bears/Colts two years ago (11.2) and the network’s second-highest rated regular season NFL telecast since reacquiring rights in ’06. | ||||
| NFL | Packers/Eagles (or SF/SEA or AZ/STL) | FOX |
14.5
|
16.5
|
| The Week 1 NFL national window, featuring Packers/Eagles, drew a massive 16.5 rating on FOX last Sunday — up 12% from last year (14.8), up 27% from 2008 (13.0) and the highest rated Week 1 national window ever on the network. | ||||
| NFL | Panthers/Giants (or ATL/PIT or DET/CHI) | FOX |
7.6
|
8.1
|
| Sunday’s early window on FOX drew an 8.1 final rating, down 6% from last year (8.6) and up 59% from 2008 (5.1). The early window was the only NFL telecast of Week 1 to have a decline in ratings versus last year. | ||||
| NFL | Bengals/Patriots (or IND/HOU, OAK/TEN, DEN/JAX, MIA/BUF or CLE/TB) | CBS |
9.7
|
9.7
|
| CBS drew a 9.7 final rating for last Sunday’s NFL singleheader, up 37% from last year (7.1), up 3% from 2008 (9.4) and the network’s highest Week 1 rating since 2000. | ||||
| NFL | FOX NFL Sunday | FOX |
3.6
|
3.0
|
| The NFL Today | CBS |
2.8
|
3.6
|
|
| The NFL Today drew a 3.6 final rating last Sunday, up 38% from last year (2.6) and the highest Week 1 rating for the CBS pregame show since it returned to the air in 1998. Meanwhile, FOX drew a 3.0 for FOX NFL Sunday, down 14% from last year (3.5). | ||||
| College Football | #18 Penn State/#1 Alabama | ESPN |
7.2
|
4.2
|
| Last week’s much hyped Penn State/Alabama college football game drew a 4.2 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 33% from USC/Ohio State last year (6.3) and down 4% from Miami/Florida in ’08 (4.3). | ||||
| College Football | #12 Miami/#2 Ohio State | ESPN |
3.3
|
3.5
|
| ESPN drew a 3.5 U.S. rating for last Saturday’s Miami/Ohio State battle, up 84% from UCLA/Tennessee last year (1.9) and up 94% from West Virginia/ECU two years ago (1.8). | ||||
| College Football | #17 Florida State/#10 Oklahoma State (92%) or Iowa State/#9 Iowa (8%) | ABC |
4.3
|
2.4
|
| Opposite high profile games on ESPN and NBC, last Saturday’s regional college football window on ABC mustered a mere 2.4 final rating — down 54% from Notre Dame/Michigan last year (5.2) and down 17% from regional action in ’08 (2.9). | ||||
| College Football | Michigan/Notre Dame | NBC |
3.0
|
4.5
|
| On a jam-packed college football Saturday, NBC’s Michigan/Notre Dame game drew the highest rating. Michigan’s win drew a 4.5 final rating, up 67% from last year’s comparable game (2.7) and up 29% from the comparable game in ’08 (3.5). | ||||
| NASCAR | Air Guard 400 | ABC |
3.3
|
3.1
|
| The Air Guard 400 — the second of three NASCAR races on ABC this season — drew a 3.1 final rating last Saturday, down 11% from last year (3.5) and down 26% from ’07 (4.2). The ’08 race was postponed due to rain. | ||||
| Golf (M) | BMW Championship, Third Round | NBC |
1.3
|
1.1
|
| BMW Championship, Final Round |
1.9
|
1.3
|
||
| Ratings for the PGA FedEx Cup BMW Championship were down 48% on Saturday and 44% on Sunday. | ||||
| MLB | Cardinals/Braves (58%), Phillies/Mets (21%) or Giants/Padres (20%) | FOX |
1.2
|
1.6
|
| Regional MLB action on FOX drew a 1.6 final rating last Saturday, up 33% from last year’s comparable telecast. | ||||
| Int’l Basketball | FIBA World Championship Gold Medal Game | ESPN |
0.7
|
0.6
|
| ESPN drew a 0.6 U.S. rating for last Sunday’s USA/Turkey FIBA World Championship gold medal game, well below the network’s average for 2009-10 NBA regular season games (1.1). | ||||
| WNBA | Dream/Storm Game 1 | ABC |
0.6
|
0.3
|
| Game 1 of the 2010 WNBA Finals drew a 0.3 final rating on ABC last Sunday, down from last year’s primetime opener on ESPN2 (0.4). | ||||
| Tennis | U.S. Open Women’s Final | CBS |
1.8
|
1.7
|
| U.S. Open Men’s Final |
3.5
|
1.8*
|
||
| CBS drew a 1.7 final rating for the U.S. Open Women’s Final last Saturday night, up 55% from last year’s final on ESPN2, but the lowest rating for a Women’s Final on CBS since at least 1995. The Men’s Final was postponed from Sunday due to rain. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Giants/Colts | 8 PM Sunday | NBC |
14.8
|
| The first Manning Bowl (14.3) ranks as one of the five highest rated primetime NFL regular season telecasts ever on NBC (dates back to 2006). Coming off a strong Week 1, there is little doubt NBC is expecting another massive number for Sunday’s rematch. Last year’s comparable Giants/Cowboys game drew a 15.1. | ||||
| NFL | Patriots/Jets (or HOU/WSH or JAX/SD) | 4:15 PM Sunday | CBS |
15.6
|
| The Patriots/Jets rivalry has been fairly high profile in recent years, and the ongoing hype surrounding the Jets should make this year no different. While it will be difficult for CBS to match the massive numbers FOX drew last week, look for the network to easily top last year’s Week 2 national window (14.5). | ||||
| NFL | Dolphins/Vikings (or PIT/TEN, BUF/GB, BAL/CIN or KC/CLE) | 1 PM Sunday | CBS |
8.3
|
| Expect solid numbers for the early window on CBS, which features Brett Favre‘s current and former teams — the Vikings and Packers, respectively. Last year’s comparable window featured Patriots/Jets and drew an 8.5. | ||||
| NFL | Bears/Cowboys (or TB/CAR, AZ/ATL, PHI/DET, SEA/DEN or STL/OAK) | 1 PM or 4 PM Sunday | FOX |
10.7
|
| The singleheader window on FOX features a battle of big name, big market teams as the Bears face the Cowboys. Look for Sunday’s telecast to have no trouble surpassing last year’s comparable window, which featured Saints/Eagles (9.6). | ||||
| College Football | #6 Texas/Texas Tech (54%) or Notre Dame/Michigan State (46%) | 8 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.9
|
| ABC has not done particularly well with college football coverage this season, with all three of the network’s games entering this weekend drawing less than a 3.0 rating. The numbers should improve this week, although Saturday night’s regional slate may not quite measure up to last year’s national telecast (4.1). | ||||
| College Football | #8 Nebraska/Washington (51%), #1 Alabama/Duke (28%) or Arizona State/Wisconsin (21%) | 3:30 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.0
|
| Against less formidable competition, expect ABC’s early college football window to have an increase from last week (2.4). Last year’s comparable window drew a 3.1. | ||||
| College Football | #10 Florida/Tennessee | 3:30 PM Saturday | CBS |
3.8
|
| Tim Tebow and his drawing power are long gone, but CBS should still earn solid numbers for its Florida/Tennessee college football season debut. Still, the numbers are likely to finish behind last year’s meeting between the rivals (4.3). | ||||
| College Football | Clemson/#16 Auburn | 7 PM Saturday | ESPN |
2.6
|
| ESPN assigned its A-team — Brent Musburger and Kirk Herbstreit — to Saturday’s Clemson/Auburn game, an indication that the network views the matchup as college football’s game of the night. Whether viewers agree is another story. Last year’s comparable Georgia/Arkansas game drew a 2.5. | ||||
| College Football | #12 Arkansas/Georgia | 12 PM Saturday | ESPN |
2.3
|
| Just last week, Georgia/South Carolina drew a higher rating in the Noon ET timeslot than the same matchup in primetime one year earlier. The situation may be similar for this week’s Arkansas/Georgia matchup, but do not expect the early afternoon game to top last year’s primetime meeting between the teams (2.5). | ||||
| NASCAR | Sylvania 300 | 1 PM Sunday | ESPN |
2.9
|
| The 2010 Chase For The Cup begins with Sunday’s Sylvania 300 on ESPN. The move from ABC (broadcast) to ESPN (cable) could be costly for the Sylvania 300, which was not exactly a ratings dynamo to begin with (last year’s race drew a 3.2). Only once since resuming NASCAR coverage in 2007 has ESPN aired a race opposite the NFL — the rescheduled 2008 Chevy Rock & Roll 400, which drew a mere 2.5 rating. Expect Sunday’s race to do better, though not by that much. | ||||
| MLB | Braves/Mets (42%), Padres/Cardinals (39%) or Tigers/White Sox (18%) | 4 PM Saturday | FOX |
1.5
|
| FOX will not exactly light up the ratings with Saturday’s regional MLB slate, but the network could get its second straight increase. Last year’s comparable telecast drew a 1.4. | ||||
