The NBA Finals highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, the Stanley Cup Final, PGA Tour, NASCAR, MLB and the UEFA Champions League.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— SCF: Predators-Penguins Game 1. Prediction: 2.6; final rating: 2.8.
— Indianapolis 500. Prediction: 3.5; final rating: 3.4.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Charlotte. Prediction: 3.3; final rating: 2.8.
— Formula 1: Monaco. Prediction: 0.8; final rating: 1.0.
— MLB: Mostly Cubs-Dodgers. Prediction: 1.6; final rating: 1.4.
— F.A. Cup Final: Arsenal-Chelsea. Prediction: 0.7; final rating: 0.6.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NBA Finals: Cavaliers-Warriors Game 2 (8 PM Sun ABC)
- There is little doubt that the NBA Finals will do well, but predictions that the Cavaliers-Warriors rubber match would set ABC-era records were a bit premature. Game 1 overnights declined 5% from last year and 4% from 2015 (final numbers will not be available until Monday). While those modest declines can be explained by the uncompetitive nature of the game, therein lies the problem for ABC. Seven of the last eight Cavs-Warriors finals games have been decided by double-digits, the lone exception being last year’s Game 7. Ratings have declined for six of those seven games, with Games 2-4 of last year’s series falling into the single-digits. If Cavs-Warriors keeps failing to meet expectations on the court, it will fail to do so in the ratings as well. The numbers will be strong nonetheless, but do not be surprised if by the end of this ‘trilogy,’ the original 2015 matchup still holds the ratings crown. Game 2 had a 9.8 rating last year and a 10.8 in 2015. Prediction: 9.6.
Stanley Cup Final: Penguins-Predators Game 3 (8 PM Sat NBCSN)
- The Stanley Cup Final has bounced back from last year’s middling numbers, with the first two games up 22 and 29 percent respectively. That is despite Pittsburgh winning by a combined five goals (last year’s first two games went to overtime). Look for the relatively good times to continue in Saturday’s Game 3. Last year’s Penguins-Sharks game had a 1.4 rating; Lightning-Blackhawks had a 2.2 in 2015. Prediction: 1.8.
PGA Tour: final round of The Memorial (2:30 PM Sun CBS)
- Perhaps no sport, not even NASCAR, is in as big a freefall as the PGA Tour. Fifteen straight final rounds have declined from last year, and that’s excluding New Orleans (rain) and Houston (tape delay). The sport’s biggest star is, arguably, still Tiger Woods — and the prospect of him returning to the golf course seems as remote as ever. Jordan Spieth had an encouraging second place finish at Colonial last week, a change of pace after a rough start to the season, but his drawing power has diminished since his coming out party in 2015. Entering The Memorial, there are few positives to speak of. Final round coverage of the event had a 2.1 last year and a 2.3 in 2015. Prediction: 1.7.
NASCAR Cup Series: Dover (1 PM Sun FS1)
- Dover has put up respectable numbers on Fox Sports 1 the past two years, netting a 2.5 both times. With NASCAR mired in a season-long ratings slump, do not expect a repeat performance. Prediction: 2.2.
MLB: Cardinals-Cubs (7:30 PM Sun ESPN)
- The Cubs’ drawing power will be tested against the NBA Finals this week, and a special early start time will not help matters. Luckily for ESPN, last year’s Giants-Cardinals game set a comfortably low bar (0.8). Prediction: 0.9.
UEFA Champions League Final: Juventus-Real Madrid (2:45 PM Sat FOX)
- Excluding Barcelona’s appearances in 2011 (1.4) and 2015 (1.3), ratings for the Champions League final have ranged between a 0.9 and 1.1 since FOX began carrying the event in 2010. Coming off of weak numbers for the semifinals, expect this year’s final to fall on the lower end. Prediction: 0.9.
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