The Stanley Cup Final highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, the Indianapolis 500, Coca-Cola 600, F1 Monaco GP, MLB on FOX and F.A. Cup final.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NBA East Finals: Celtics-Cavs Game 3. Prediction: 3.8; final rating: 4.0.
— NBA West Finals: Warriors-Spurs Game 3. Prediction: 3.4; final rating: 3.7.
— Horse Racing: Preakness Stakes. Prediction: 5.9; final rating: 4.6.
— NHL West final: Ducks-Predators Game 5. Prediction: 1.5; final rating: 1.4.
— MLB: Mostly Angels-Mets or Giants-Cardinals. Prediction: 1.3; final rating: 1.5.
— NASCAR All-Star Race. Prediction: 1.8; final rating: 1.6.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
Stanley Cup Final: Predators-Penguins Game 1 (8 PM Mon NBC)
- NHL playoff ratings have held up surprisingly well despite an abundance of Canadian and Sun Belt teams. Look for that to continue in the Stanley Cup Final, which features the Nashville Predators for the very first time. Nashville’s surprise run and Pittsburgh’s repeat bid make for as attractive a matchup as the league could have hoped for once Chicago, Boston and the Rangers were eliminated. Ratings are not going to be on the level of the Blackhawks’ recent trips to the final, but at least in Game 1, expect a solid increase over last year’s forgettable Sharks-Penguins matchup. Last year’s opener had a 2.3 rating opposite extremely tough NBA competition. The 2015 opener had a 3.3. Prediction: 2.6.
Indianapolis 500 (12 PM Sun ABC)
- Indy 500 ratings have been consistently middling for most of the century, perking up when Danica Patrick made her debut in 2005 but otherwise hovering around the low 4.0 — or more recently, high 3.0 — range. There is no reason to believe this year’s race will break out of what is going on a 20-year slump, especially with the potential of rain delays. The race had a 3.9 last year and a 4.2 in 2015. Its lowest rating was as 3.6 in 2010. Prediction: 3.5.
NASCAR Cup Series: Charlotte (6 PM Sun FOX)
- NASCAR ratings have mostly declined this season, no small feat given the low bar set last year. Nothing has moved the needle yet — not an offseason of rules changes, an early season brawl, or Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s imminent retirement. Each week seems to bring not just a year-over-year decline, but a decade-plus low. Expect as much at Charlotte, where last year’s 3.4 rating tied the lowest mark since at least 1996. Prediction: 3.3.
Formula 1: Monaco (8 AM Sun NBC)
- The F1 Monaco Grand Prix had a 0.9 rating last year, a 0.9 rating in 2015 and a 0.9 rating in 2014. Let’s go out on a limb. Prediction: 0.8.
MLB regular season: Mostly Cubs-Dodgers (7 PM Sat FOX)
- The Cubs’ title defense has not gotten off to the greatest of starts, but Chicago is still baseball’s best bet in the ratings department. Look for this week’s MLB on FOX regional window, featuring Cubs-Dodgers in nearly two-thirds of markets, to score a solid increase over last year’s mere 1.1. Prediction: 1.6.
F.A. Cup Final: Arsenal-Chelsea (Noon Sat FOX)
- The F.A. Cup final pits two of the Premier League’s most prominent teams as Arsenal faces newly-crowned EPL champion Chelsea. Last year’s Manchester United-Crystal Palace final had a 0.6 rating, tied as the highest since the event moved to FOX. Expect an even higher rating this time around. Prediction: 0.7.
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