Week 3 of the NFL season highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, week four of the college football season, the WNBA Finals, and the finale of the PGA Tour season.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
NFL Late DH Window: Mostly Bengals-Packers (4:25 PM Sun CBS)
If CBS wanted to ease Tony Romo into his new gig as its lead NFL analyst, the NFL schedule has certainly cooperated. FOX got the first two doubleheaders of the season and NBC has produced the first two Thursday Night Football games, leaving Romo to debut out of the spotlight on low-wattage regional matchups distributed to less than half the country. This weekend, he makes his first nationwide appearance on what should be one of the lowest rated national windows all season — the 0-2 Bengals and their inept offense inexplicably taking center stage. Last year’s comparable telecast featured Steelers-Eagles and had a 12.6 rating, a low bar for the 4:25 PM ET window. Expect even lower numbers. Prediction: 11.8.
NFL Sunday Night Football: Oakland-Washington (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
The Raiders are not all the way back yet, but they have regained enough relevance to become primetime regulars this season. Though both teams are NFL bluebloods, Oakland and Washington have not played each other in primetime since 1970 — giving this week’s matchup a surprising amount of novelty. Ratings should comfortably top last year’s 11.7 for the Cowboys against a hard-to-watch Bears team. Prediction: 12.4.
NFL International Series: Ravens-Jaguars (9:30 AM Sun Verizon)
For all the attention given the rise of streaming and the NFL’s declining TV ratings, there is surprisingly little being paid Sunday’s Ravens-Jaguars livestream on Verizon — just the second NFL game to be televised exclusively via stream. Two years ago, Yahoo! averaged 1.6 million viewers per minute for Bills-Jaguars in the same 9:30 AM ET timeslot. While NFL viewership has dipped since then (a ‘massive’ decline of eight percent last year), the rise of streaming should result in a larger audience for this year’s game. Prediction: 2.2M.
CFB: Alabama-Vanderbilt (3:30 PM Sat CBS)
The war between ESPN and Fox has come to dominate the sports media scene, but on most college football Saturdays it is merely a battle for second place. The SEC on CBS already took top honors last week, with Florida’s Hail Mary win over Tennessee the highest rated game on any network. Expect more of the same this week, with Alabama facing the SEC’s ultimate David, Vanderbilt, for the first time in six years. On the same weekend last year, Florida-Tennessee had a 3.3 rating. Prediction: 3.6.
CFB: TCU-Oklahoma State (3:30 Sat ESPN)
Arguably the top game of the weekend pits #16 TCU against #6 Oklahoma State. The Big 12 tends to get lost in the shuffle out of the power five conferences, and Alabama will provide formidable competition. Still, expect solid numbers. Prediction: 1.7.
CFB: Notre Dame-Michigan State (8 PM Sat FOX)
One of college football’s top rivalries heads to Fox Sports for the first time. With both teams unranked, Notre Dame-Michigan State does not have its usual luster, but the matchup should still be more-than-enough to lift FOX past last year’s 1.1 for Oklahoma-Baylor. The real question is how it will compete with the teams’ meeting last year on NBC, which had a 2.9 rating. Prediction: 2.4.
Another pro basketball finals rematch, this time in the WNBA. Last year’s Sparks-Lynx series was arguably the best in WNBA history, but ratings were unchanged from the previous year — a 0.3 for the full five-game series. Hard to see this year’s rematch doing much better. Last year’s Game 1 had a 0.41 rating on ABC. Prediction: 0.44. After slumping badly earlier in the year, PGA Tour ratings have surged to the finish line, with the past eight windows on broadcast television posting an increase. This week’s Tour Championship should keep the good times going, though that is no guarantee. Last year’s 1.6 for final round coverage tied the previous year as the highest since 2012. Prediction: 1.1 and 1.7. — NFL: Cowboys-Broncos. Prediction: 15.0; result: 14.3WNBA Finals: Sparks-Lynx Game 1 (3:30 PM ABC)
PGA: Third & Final Rounds of Tour Championship (2:30 PM Sat & 1:30 PM Sun NBC)
Last Week’s Results
— NFL: Packers-Falcons. Prediction: 11.0; result: 11.3
— CFB: Clemson-Louisville. Prediction: 4.7; result: 3.0
— CFB: Texas-USC. Prediction: 1.6; result: 2.9
— CFB: Tennessee-Florida. Prediction: 3.3; result: 3.2
— MLB: Dodgers-Nationals. Prediction: 0.8; result: 0.55
— NASCAR: Chicagoland. Prediction: 1.4; result: 1.4
— PGA: Western Open. Predictions: 1.0 and 1.2; result: 1.1 and 1.25
