Winter Olympics ratings predictions and more, including Cavaliers-Celtics and the PGA at Pebble Beach.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
Winter Olympics Opening Ceremony (8 PM Fri NBC)
Four years ago, the last Winter Olympics faded quickly after a strong start, finishing as the second-lowest rated Olympics ever in primetime.
With that as a backdrop, expectations should be low for this year’s PyeongChang Olympics. If the last two Games are any indication, the Olympics is beginning to experience the same kind of viewer erosion afflicting other major TV events, most notably the NFL. PyeongChang is not as inconvenient a location as one might think — most of the major events will take place in the morning in South Korea, which is primetime in the U.S. — but it is also not a particularly interesting host. NBC is doing its typical yeoman’s job turning heretofore anonymous athletes into stars, but if Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt could not save ratings in Rio, what chance do Nathan Chen or Mikaela Shiffrin have?
Thursday’s primetime coverage had a 9.0 rating, down 20 percent from 2014. A similar drop for the Opening Ceremony would result in a 13.6 rating, the lowest since 2006. Frankly, even that seems a little high. In the last three Winter Olympics, the Opening Ceremony has declined between 8 and 19 percent from the previous Summer Games. That would equal a rating between 11.2 and 12.8. Prediction: 12.2.
Primetime Winter Olympics (8 PM Sat & 7 PM Sun NBC)
NBA: Spurs-Warriors and Cavaliers-Celtics (8 PM Sat & 3:30 PM Sun ABC)
On Sunday, the new-look Cavaliers face the rival Celtics in the season’s third meeting between LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. The first two games posted strong ratings, a 3.3 for their Opening Night matchup (+94 percent) and a 2.0 for their January 3 meeting (+54%). The Winter Olympics will probably keep the numbers lower than they otherwise would have been, and a little intrigue is lost with Isaiah Thomas’ trade to Los Angeles. Even so, ABC should easily top last year’s 1.9 rating for Spurs-Knicks (1.9). Prediction: 2.6.
PGA: Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (4 PM Sat & 3 PM Sun CBS)
NASCAR: “The Clash at Daytona” (3 PM Sun FS1)
Last Week’s Results
— Super Bowl: Eagles-Patriots. Predictions: 43.2 rating, 106.8M TV viewers, 1.89M streaming; results: 43.1 rating, 103.4M TV viewers, 2.02M streaming
— Super Bowl Pregame. Prediction: 8.0; result: n.a. (11.9M viewers)
— NBA: Rockets-Cavs. Prediction: 2.2; result: 1.8
— NBA: Lakers-Thunder. Prediction: 1.5; result: 1.6
— PGA Phoenix Open, final round. Prediction: 1.7; result: 2.5
— Top Rank Boxing. Prediction: 0.8; result: 0.49
