Ratings predictions: Brady’s return and more

On the long list of superstars returning to their former home with a new team, Tom Brady’s scheduled return to New England as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers nears the top. Michael Jordan returned to Chicago as a member of the Washington Wizards four times, and to be frank none was any good. The first was a Saturday matinee on NBC overshadowed locally by the Bears’ playoff game later the same day. It did not even air fully nationally, some 28% of the country getting a Lakers-Spurs Western Conference Finals rematch instead. (Those Lakers-Spurs viewers were lucky, given the 77-69 score of the Wizards-Bulls game). The rating was a 3.5, pretty good under the circumstances.

LeBron James returned to Cleveland as a member of the Miami Heat and the atmosphere was ludicrously ugly (the fan who brought the sign “Like Father, Like Son” to liken James leaving a multimillion-dollar sports franchise to James’ father abandoning a teenage mother and child was, and is, an embarrassment to all of us.) TNT cleaned up in the ratings, by NBA standards at least, its 4.2 trailing only James’ Heat debut weeks earlier (4.6) as the highest for any NBA regular season game on cable this century.

The NBA has more of these than other sports, if for no other reason that it has bigger stars and greater player movement. Kevin Durant’s return to Oklahoma City was also an above-average draw. So was Shaquille O’Neal’s return to Orlando and his return to Los Angeles (though more for his rivalry with Kobe Bryant than anything to do with L.A.).

In the NFL, the biggest return in recent years was Brett Favre’s first game in Green Bay as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. You have to be of a certain age to remember how ubiquitous Favre once was and how much oxygen he soaked up in the sports media. His first game back, which aired on FOX, averaged a 17.4 rating — an impossibly-high bar even for the NFL nowadays, but the kind of number one would see from time to time back then.

Brady’s return will not get a 17.4 rating, or a 16.4, or (probably) even a 15.4. Let us be real about where the industry is. A 14 would be a massive success. The Cowboys-Buccaneers Kickoff Game — a thriller between the league’s biggest star and its biggest team — had a 13.4, and that is about as high as one can reasonably expect in 2021. If the game is as competitive as expected (Tampa Bay is favored by a touchdown), Sunday’s game could finish in that range.

One guarantee is that ratings will surge ahead of last year’s 8.4 for Eagles-49ers, which absurdly aired opposite the NBA Finals. Prediction: 12.8 rating, 23.92M viewers.

Lost in the celebration of this year’s NFL ratings is that the numbers really are not that good compared to five or six years ago. It is interesting the way things work. The kind of rating that induces panic in 2016, after a suitable number of years, becomes the kind of rating that gets celebrated in press releases.

It is of course true that this year’s numbers are up and that they are spectacular compared to the rest of television — even more spectacular relative to the competition than they were in the league’s mid-2010s heyday. Nonetheless, we have reached week four and only five windows have cracked a double-digit rating — fewer than the same point last year (seven). The bar for success has fallen further than the ratings have.

Expect a solid increase in ratings for this week’s national window, featuring Steelers-Packers in most markets. Last year, CBS was stuck with Bills-Raiders in 75% of markets after Patriots-Chiefs got postponed, scoring a mere 9.9. Prediction: 11.8, 21.23M.

In a rarity, the big Noon game this week airs on ESPN rather than FOX. Arkansas faces Georgia in a top ten matchup that figures to win its timeslot. With Georgia favored by double-digits, do not expect an overly massive rating, though ESPN should score its top number of the season. The current mark is a 1.9 for Louisville-Mississippi on Labor Day. Prediction: 2.4, 4.21M.

The power of the Big Ten is such that a ranked Michigan team is probably enough to keep FOX competitive with a top-ten SEC matchup Saturday afternoon. FOX may even win out. Expect a solid number. Prediction: 2.2, 3.86M.

On a packed college football Saturday, Notre Dame’s top-ten matchup against Cincinnati overlaps with both Arkansas-Georgia and Mississippi-Alabama, which should keep the ratings from rising too high. If the game is as close as the oddmakers expect, this matchup should still hold its own. Prediction: 2.3, 4.01M.

Alabama is favored by two-touchdowns, but their matchup against Mississippi should still rank as the top college football game of the weekend. Such is the power of that 3:30 PM ET SEC on CBS window, a ratings magnet that CBS probably should have ponied up the money to keep. Prediction: 3.3, 5.64M.

39-year-old Diana Taurasi’s 37-point performance in Game 2 Thursday surely raised a few eyebrows beyond WNBA circles, but that will probably not be enough to draw many eyeballs away from NFL games on Sunday. A long time ago, the WNBA used to end its season before the NFL began (“All the Way to Labor Day” was the slogan). Doing so again should be at the top of Cathy Engelbert’s to-do list.

The WNBA finds itself in the strange position of drawing its largest audiences in the regular season, before the NFL begins. The current season high is ABC’s 755,000 for a Storm-Sky game on a Sunday afternoon in August. To put that in perspective, last Sunday’s all-timer between Taurasi’s Mercury and Sue Bird’s Storm had just 311,000 on the same network. Such is the power of the NFL. Do not expect much better numbers for this week’s game. Prediction: 304K viewers.

In less than a single calendar year, the Lakers will have played parts of three NBA seasons. A year ago today, they won Game 2 of the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat. After clinching the series October 11, they then played a 72-game regular season and one round of playoffs. Now, the preseason is set to begin. Such is the mind-numbing madness of our time.

In what ESPN hopes is an NBA Finals preview, the Lakers are set to host the Nets Sunday afternoon. As is now on-brand for the NBA, all the discussion so far this preseason has been about everything but the game. Surely few will watch this one, especially with LeBron James taking the game off. Prediction: 191K viewers.