First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- ALCS on FOX, Indians/Red Sox Game 6. Prediction: 9.8. Final rating: 6.8. Game 6 of the ALCS pulled in a big Saturday night rating on FOX, though the 6.8 marked a 15% decline from Game 6 of the 2006 NLCS, and the game on the comparable night last year, Game 1 of the World Series.
- ALCS on FOX, Indians/Red Sox Game 7. Prediction: 12.1. Final rating: 11.7. Red Sox/Indians Game 7 drew the highest rating for a Major League Baseball game since 2005. The game blew away its NFL competition, as the 11.7 rating was 41% higher than the 8.3 for the opposing Sunday Night Football game on NBC.
- Notre Dame football on NBC, USC/Notre Dame. Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 1.7. The USC/Notre Dame rivalry draws its lowest rating since at least 1998, and likely its lowest rating ever. Through four games, Notre Dame football on NBC is averaging a 2.0 rating, down 39% from a 3.3 rating through four games in ’06.
- SEC on CBS, Florida/Kentucky. Prediction: 2.9. Final rating: 3.3. Thanks to several marquee teams, SEC football on CBS is rising in the ratings; the 3.3 for Florida/Kentucky is a 22% increase over the 2.7 for Alabama/Tennessee in ’06. Through six games, SEC on CBS is averaging a 3.3/7 rating, up 10% from a 3.0/7 last year.
- College football on ABC, regional. Prediction: 3.6. Final rating: 4.1. A 5% increase for college football coverage on ABC in the 3:30 PM timeslot on Saturday.
- NASCAR on ABC, Subway 500. Prediction: 3.8. Final rating: 3.7. NASCAR on ABC continues to drop. The 3.7 rating for the Subway 500 marks a 10% decline from the 4.1 rating for the same race last year. NASCAR on ABC is averaging a 3.8 final rating through seven races.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC. Prediction: 2.6. Final rating: 3.0. Through last week, Saturday Night Football is averaging a 3.4 rating, down 29% from a 4.8 rating through the same date last year.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Steelers/Broncos. Prediction: 9.3. Final rating: 8.3. It’s not every day that the NFL gets destroyed in its timeslot by Major League Baseball. Through Week 7, NBC is averaging a 10.1 rating for Sunday Night Football, down 8% from an 11.0 rating at the same point last year.
This week’s predictions:
- World Series on FOX, Red Sox/Rockies Game 3, 8 PM Saturday — Through two games, the World Series is averaging a 10.8 rating on FOX, up 10% from a 9.8 last year. Look for the lowest rating of the series for Game 3 on Saturday; no World Series game on a Saturday night has drawn a double digit rating since 2004. Prediction: 9.7.
- World Series on FOX, Red Sox/Rockies Game 4, 8 PM Saturday — Depending on where the series is by Sunday, Game 4 could either draw a big or mediocre rating. Should Boston take a 3-0 lead in the series, Game 4 may be hard pressed to draw a rating higher than 11. However, if the series is a more competitive 2-1, Game 4 could rise as high as a 12. Prediction: 12.2.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Ohio State/Penn State, 8 PM Saturday — The top-ranked team in the nation plays on Saturday night in a battle of big name Big Ten teams. While OSU/Penn St will get blown out by the World Series on FOX, look for the game to draw the second-biggest rating of the year for Saturday Night Football. Prediction: 4.3.
- College football on ABC, regional, 12 PM Saturday — Colorado/Texas Tech and West Virginia/Rutgers — even though the latter is a battle of Top 25 teams — are not quite the match-ups one puts on the air if one is looking for big ratings, especially in the 12:00 PM timeslot. Prediction: 2.6.
- College football on ABC, regional, 3:30 PM Saturday — Nebraska and Texas are marquee programs, though neither is in the national championship hunt. Still, the rivalry may be good for some slightly decent number. Meanwhile, Clemson/Maryland and South Florida/Connecticut are not necessarily games that most of America flocks to watch. Prediction: 2.8.
- SEC on CBS, Georgia/Florida, 3:30 PM Saturday — Georgia and Florida are both in the Top 25, but do not expect their rivalry game to draw the same numbers of previous SEC telecasts on CBS. Prediction: 2.9.
- NASCAR on ABC, Pep Boys Auto 500, 2 PM Sunday — NASCAR ratings are in a constant decline. It would take quite a performance for the Pep Boys Auto 500 to come anywhere close to the 4.8 rating for the comparable Bass Pro Shops 500 in 2006. Prediction: 3.6.
- NFL on FOX, Washington/Patriots, 4 PM Sunday — The Celtics, Red Sox and Boston College may all be big news in New England, but none of those teams can come close to the New England Patriots when it comes to attracting a national audience. Look for Washington/Patriots to draw a bigger rating than Game 4 of the World Series. Prediction: 13.3.
