First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NBA on ABC, Hawks/Celtics. Prediction: 3.3. Final rating: 3.5. The 3.5 final rating for the Celtics’ Game 7 demolition of the Atlanta Hawks marks a 46% increase over the 2.4 for Nets/Cavaliers Game 1 last year. ABC averaged a 3.2 rating for five first round games, with only one game drawing less than a 3.0 rating.
- NBA on ABC, Jazz/Lakers. Prediction: 3.7. Final rating: 4.1. For the first time in four years, the Lakers in the second round. And the biggest winners are the NBA’s television partners. The 4.1 for Jazz/Lakers Game 1 is a 17% increase over the 3.5 for Spurs/Suns Game 1 last year. This marks the first time in two years a non-Finals playoff game has drawn a 4+ rating on ABC.
- Horse racing on NBC, Kentucky Derby. Prediction: 8.0. Final rating: 8.8. This year’s Kentucky Derby was the second most watched in 17 years. The race drew 14.2 million viewers, the most since 2004, when the highly touted Smarty Jones began his near-Triple Crown run. The 8.8 rating is even with last year.
- NASCAR on FOX, Dan Lowry 400. Prediction: 4.7. Final rating: 4.5. The 4.5 rating for the Dan Lowry 400 marks a 5% increase from a 4.3 for the comparable race last year. The rating is also the best for a NASCAR race at Richmond International Raceway.
- NHL on NBC, Rangers/Penguins. Prediction: 1.1. Final rating: 1.3. NHL ratings are on the rise, even on broadcast. The 1.3 rating for the Penguins’ series-clinching win over the Rangers is the highest for a non-Stanley Cup Finals NHL Playoff game since 2006. The 1.3 rating marks a whopping 44% increase over a 0.9 for Sabres/Rangers last year.
This week’s predictions.
- NBA on ABC, Celtics/Cavaliers, 8:15 PM Saturday — The first two games may have been ugly, but this series still involves the most storied team in basketball and one of the biggest stars in the league. Last year, ABC drew a solid 3.4 rating for Suns/Spurs Game 3 in the same timeslot. Prediction: 3.2.
- NASCAR on FOX, Dodge Challenger 500, 7 PM Saturday — For the second straight week, NASCAR takes over Saturday night. While the NBA should provide decent competition, look for NASCAR to end up on top. Last year, the comparable race drew a 4.2 on a Sunday afternoon, after it was rained out on Saturday night. Prediction: 4.7.
- NBA on ABC, Lakers/Jazz, 3:30 PM Sunday — The Jazz’ victory last night added some intrigue to this series. The presence of the Lakers should vault the ratings for this game past the 2.8 for the comparable Pistons/Bulls telecast last year. Prediction: 3.6.
- PGA on NBC, The Players Championship, 2 PM Sunday — No Tiger, no ratings. Last year, the so-called ‘fifth major’ drew a 3.6 rating in the final round. Without Tiger Woods, the ratings for this year’s event will determine just how strong of a brand is the TPC. Prediction: 2.2.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Tigers or other regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — Through five weeks, baseball on FOX is averaging a 2.2 rating, down 15% from a 2.6 last year. Look for the presence of the Yankees to give FOX at least a small bump. Prediction: 2.4.
