Weekend ratings predictions.

First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily.

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
College basketball	Arizona St./Syracuse	CBS	4.4	3.8
The 3.8 final rating for Arizona St./Syracuse last Sunday was the fourth-lowest rating of the NCAA Tournament through Sunday.
College basketball	Regional coverage	CBS	5.9	5.8
By contrast to Arizona St./Syracuse, the 5.8 for regional coverage of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday afternoon finished as the fourth-highest rating of the NCAA Tournament through Sunday.
College basketball	Regional coverage	CBS	6.3	7.3
The last window of the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend saw a solid increase in ratings. The 7.3 for regional coverage featuring Louisville/Siena marks a 12% increase from a 6.5 for comparable coverage in ’08.
NBA	Heat/Pistons	ABC	1.2	1.2
Opposite the NCAA Tournament, ABC drew the third-lowest rating ever for an NBA game on broadcast. The 1.2 for Heat/Pistons was off 13% from a 1.5 for Spurs/Mavericks last year, marking the third straight week NBA coverage has seen a double-digit drop in ratings on ABC.
NASCAR	Food City 500	FOX	5.1	4.5
The 4.5 rating for the Food City 500 marks an 18% drop from a 5.5 for the same race last year, when it did not go up against the NCAA Tournament. The 4.5 rating is the lowest for the Food City 500 since 2000, when the race aired on cable.
NHL	Flyers/Penguins	NBC	0.8	0.8
Whie other sports saw big drops in ratings opposite the NCAA Tournament, NHL ratings remained on par with previous results. The 0.8 final rating for last Sunday’s Flyers/Penguins tilt matches the season average for NHL telecasts on NBC post-Winter Classic.
WBC	United States/Japan	ESPN	2.1	1.9
The 1.9 U.S. rating for last Sunday night’s World Baseball Classic semifinal between the U.S. and Japan was the highest rating ever for a World Baseball Classic telecast.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
College basketball	Missouri/Connecticut	4:30 PM Saturday	CBS	5.1
The first Elite Eight game of the weekend should put up solid numbers. However, look for a small decline from last year’s comparable UCLA/Xavier game, which drew a 5.2 in a later timeslot.
College basketball	Pittsburgh/Villanova	7:00 PM Saturday	CBS	6.0
There is little doubt CBS would rather have Duke playing in this game than Villanova. Do not expect this Big East tilt to match the 6.5 for last year’s comparable game, which featured ratings magnet North Carolina against Louisville in a later timeslot.
College basketball	Louisville/Michigan St.	2:30 PM Sunday	CBS	5.7
Sunday’s Elite Eight action tips off with #1 overall seed Louisville taking on Michigan State. Look for ratings to increase over the 5.1 for last year’s Memphis/Texas matchup.
College basketball	North Carolina/Oklahoma	5:00 PM Sunday	CBS	8.3
North Carolina may be a big draw, but it will be very difficult for CBS to match the stellar 8.7 rating Davidson/Kansas put up in this timeslot a year ago.
NBA	Mavericks/Cavaliers	1:00 PM Sunday	ABC	1.5
After three straight weeks of declining ratings, look for the NBA to head back onto the right track. Last year’s comparable Rockets/Spurs game drew a mere 1.3 rating, and one figures a matchup pitting LeBron James against the team from the #5 market in the country should surpass that number.
PGA Tour	Arnold Palmer Invitational, Final Round	2:30 PM Sunday	NBC	2.9
Despite Tiger Woods’ presence, expect ratings to fall for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Last year’s final round drew a 3.5 rating, but did not air opposite the NCAA Tournament. With the Elite Eight airing on CBS, not even Woods may be able to keep the ratings from dropping.
NASCAR	Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500	1:30 PM Sunday	FOX	5.0
Every NASCAR race this season has seen declining ratings, and this Sunday’s race should be no exception. Last year’s comparable race drew a 5.3/12 rating opposite the Elite Eight.