First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Final rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse racing | Kentucky Derby | NBC |
8.2
|
9.8
|
| The Kentucky Derby rose to its highest rating ever on NBC. The 9.8 for Mine That Bird’s victory was up 11% over an 8.8 for last year’s race, and marks the highest rating for the race portion of the Kentucky Derby since 1992. | ||||
| NBA | Bulls/Celtics Game 7 | TNT |
3.7
|
4.4
|
| The conclusion of one of the most stirring playoff series in NBA history gave TNT big ratings last Saturday. The 4.4 for the Celtics’ Game 7 win over the Bulls was up 26% over a 3.5 for Hawks/Celtics Game 7 on a Sunday afternoon last year, and marks the highest rating ever for a first round NBA Playoff game on cable. | ||||
| NBA | Hawks/Heat Game 7 | ABC |
2.8
|
2.6
|
| While Bulls/Celtics Game 7 was a hit on cable, Hawks/Heat Game 7 was a snoozer on broadcast. The 2.6 for the Hawks’ blowout win over the Heat marks a 26% decline from a 3.5 for Hawks/Celtics Game 7 in the same timeslot in ’08. | ||||
| NBA | Mavericks/Nuggets Game 1 | ABC |
3.0
|
3.2
|
| The starpower-deficient Mavericks and Nuggets did not draw big numbers on ABC last Sunday. The Nuggets’ Game 1 win drew a 3.2 rating on ABC, down 22% from a 4.1 for Jazz/Lakers in the same timeslot a year ago. | ||||
| NHL | Penguins/Capitals Game 1 | NBC |
1.1
|
1.2
|
| The first playoff battle between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin drew a solid number on NBC last Saturday. The 1.2 for the Capitals’ Game 1 win marks a 71% jump over a 0.7 for Avalanche/Red Wings in a later timeslot last year. | ||||
| NHL | Ducks/Red Wings Game 1 | NBC |
1.0
|
1.3
|
| While Crosby/Ovechkin received all the hype, Ducks/Red Wings drew the higher rating. Sunday’s triple-overtime Game 2 between the Ducks and Red Wings drew a 1.3 rating on NBC, up 30% from a 1.0 for Rangers/Penguins last year. | ||||
| NASCAR | Russ Friedman 400 | FOX |
3.9
|
4.0
|
| NASCAR ratings continue to decline. Last Saturday’s Russ Friedman 400 drew a 4.0 rating on FOX, down 11% from a 4.5 last year. So far this season, all ten NASCAR races on FOX have seen declining ratings, with the last seven races seeing double-digit declines. | ||||
| PGA | Quail Hollow Championship, Final Round | CBS |
3.0
|
3.7
|
| Tiger Woods’ presence no doubt boosted the ratings for the Quail Hollow Championship. Final round coverage drew a 3.7 rating on CBS last Sunday, up a whopping 131% from last year’s 1.6. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net |
Prediction
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Nuggets/Mavericks Game 3 | 5 PM Saturday | ESPN |
1.7
|
| Game 3 of a generally low-key series gets a less-than-favorable Saturday afternoon timeslot on cable. Look for a less-than-spectacular rating. | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Hawks Game 3 | 8 PM Saturday | ABC |
2.8
|
| LeBron James and the Cavaliers are not enough of a draw to make Saturday night’s inevitable blowout of the Hawks a television attraction. Last year, a Celtics/Cavaliers blowout drew a 3.2; a closer Suns/Spurs game the year before drew a 3.4. | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Rockets Game 4 | 3:30 PM Sunday | ABC |
4.4
|
| Game 4 of this hard fought series between two big-market teams figures to draw a big number on ABC. Last year’s overtime Game 4 between the Lakers and Jazz drew a 4.1. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Magic Game 4 | 8 PM Sunday | TNT |
2.6
|
| The defending champion Celtics face a must-win on Sunday night against an up-and-coming Orlando squad. Last year’s comparable game, which featured the then-defending champion Spurs facing a must win against an up-and-coming New Orleans squad, drew a 2.4. | ||||
| Golf | The Players’ Championship, Final Round | 2 PM Sunday | NBC |
3.5
|
| Spurred by the presence of Tiger Woods, golf finally has its ratings mojo back. Look golf’s “fifth major” to replicate last week’s ratings success at the Quail Hollow Championship. Last year’s final round of The Players’ Championship drew a 3.1. | ||||
| NASCAR | Southern 500 | 7 PM Saturday | FOX |
4.2
|
| Saturday nights have not been kind to NASCAR this season. Two Saturday night races have averaged a 3.8 rating on FOX, compared to a 5.5 for eight Sunday afternoon races. Last year’s race drew a 4.8 rating; with NASCAR ratings down 13% on FOX this season, look for a smaller number this time around. | ||||
