First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Final rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Magic/Lakers Game 2 | ABC |
7.7
|
8.2
|
| Last Sunday’s Game 2 of the NBA Finals drew an 8.2 final rating on ABC, down 4% from an 8.5 for Lakers/Celtics Game 2 last year, but up 46% from a 5.6 for Cavaliers/Spurs Game 2 in ’07. | ||||
| NHL | Penguins/Red Wings Game 5 | NBC |
3.0
|
2.4
|
| The Red Wings’ final victory of the 2008-09 season drew a 2.4 rating on NBC last Saturday night, down 37% from a 3.8 for Game 5 between the same two teams last year, which took place on a Monday night. | ||||
| Tennis | French Open Men’s Final, Federer/Soderling | NBC |
1.5
|
1.5
|
| Roger Federer‘s victory in the French Open Men’s Final drew a 1.5 final rating on NBC last Sunday, even with Federer/Nadal in ’08, but down 17% from a 1.8 for Federer/Nadal in ’07. The 1.5 finishes in a five-way tie as the second-lowest rating ever for the Men’s Final of the French Open on broadcast. | ||||
| Horse racing | The Belmont Stakes | ABC |
5.9
|
4.4
|
| The 4.4 final rating for the race segment of The Belmont Stakes was down 51% from a 9.0 last year, when Big Brown went for the Triple Crown, but up 38% from a 3.2 in ’07, the last time there was no possibility of a Triple Crown winner. | ||||
| WNBA | Shock/Sparks | ABC |
0.5
|
0.6
|
| The 0.6 rating for last Saturday’s Shock/Sparks tilt marks a 25% drop from a 0.8 for Sparks/Mercury last year. | ||||
| NASCAR | Pocono 500 | TNT |
3.3
|
3.4
|
| TNT is not immune to the trend of declining NASCAR ratings. The 3.4 for the Pocono 500, the first NASCAR race of the season on TNT, was off 13% from a 3.9 for last year’s race. | ||||
| PGA | The Memorial, Final Round | CBS |
3.0
|
3.2
|
| The 3.2 for the final round of The Memorial last Sunday was up a whopping 100% from a 1.6 last year, and marks the highest rating for final round coverage of the event since ’05. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net |
Prediction
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Lakers/Magic Game 5 | 8 PM Sunday | ABC |
10.5
|
| The past four NBA Finals to go to a fifth game have averaged a 15% increase in ratings from Game 4 to Game 5, including a 17% increase last year (8.7 for Game 4 to 10.2 for Game 5). Coming off of a 9.4 rating for Thursday’s Game 4, a double-digit rating seems likely for what could be the clinching game of the 2009 NBA Finals. | ||||
| NASCAR | LifeLock 400 | 2 PM Sunday | TNT |
3.0
|
| After a double-digit decline for its season debut, TNT airs its second NASCAR race of the season on Sunday. Every single NASCAR race this season has seen declining ratings, and nothing indicates that will change on Sunday. Last year’s comparable race drew a 3.3. | ||||
| PGA | St. Jude Classic, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday | CBS |
2.7
|
| With Phil Mickelson playing his first PGA Tour event since his wife was diagnosed with cancer, and John Daly playing his first event since being suspended from the PGA Tour, look for a bigger audience for the St. Jude Classic. Final round coverage last year drew a 2.0. | ||||
| MLB | Mets/Yankees | 1 PM Sunday | TBS |
0.9
|
| TBS gets a marquee matchup for its Sunday afternoon MLB telecast this week. Through late May, TBS averaged a 0.5 U.S. rating for MLB coverage; look for more respectable numbers for this Subway Series tilt. | ||||
