Weekend ratings predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Final rating
NFL	Chargers/Steelers	NBC	11.2	11.0
Last Sunday night’s Chargers/Steelers game drew an 11.0 rating on NBC, up 2% from last year.
NFL	Cowboys/Broncos or other regional action	FOX	13.9	13.1
The 13.1 rating for last week’s Cowboys/Broncos tilt on FOX marks a 1% increase over a 13.0 for Washington/Cowboys during Week 4 last year.
NFL	Giants/Chiefs or other regional action	FOX	7.7	7.7
Regional NFL action featuring Giants/Chiefs drew a 7.7 rating on FOX last week, down 3% from a 7.9 last year, and the lowest rated NFL telecast of the season on FOX.
NFL	Ravens/Patriots or other regional action	CBS	8.6	10.1
CBS drew strong ratings for its NFL singleheader last week. The 10.1 for regional coverage featuring Ravens/Patriots was up 49% from a 6.8 for comparable coverage last year.
College football	Oklahoma/Miami or USC/Cal	ABC	5.2	4.8
The 4.8 rating for last week’s Oklahoma/Miami tilt on ABC was up 33% from last year, and ranks as the highest rating of the season for Saturday Night Football.
College football	FSU/BC, Penn St./Illinois or UCLA/Stanford	ABC	3.2	2.6
Regional college football action on ABC last Saturday afternoon drew a 2.6 rating, down 16% from last year, and the lowest rating of the season for college football on ABC.
College football	LSU/Georgia	CBS	3.4	3.5
Last Saturday’s LSU/Georgia tilt on CBS drew a 3.5 rating, up 52% from a 2.3 for Tennessee/Auburn last year.
College football	Washington/Notre Dame	NBC	2.3	2.9
Notre Dame’s win over Washington last Saturday scored a 2.9 rating for NBC, up 61% from Purdue/Notre Dame last year, and the highest rated Notre Dame game since last September.
MLB	Royals/Twins or other regional action	FOX	1.5	1.2
FOX ended its regular season MLB coverage with a mere 1.2 for Royals/Twins, tied as the lowest MLB rating of the season on the network. FOX averaged a 1.8 rating for 26 regular season MLB telecasts in ’09, down 10% from last year, and the lowest average ever for the MLB Game of the Week on broadcast.
NASCAR	Price Chopper 400	ABC	3.3	3.2
The 3.2 rating for last Sunday’s Price Chopper 400 was down 8% from a 3.5 last year, and marks the second-lowest rating in the 8-year history of the race.
WNBA	Mercury/Fever Game 3	ESPN2	0.32	0.29
Game 3 of the now-completed WNBA Finals drew a 0.29 rating on ESPN2 last Sunday — the lowest rated game of the series (not including Game 5, for which ratings are not yet available).

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
MLB	Cardinals/Dodgers Game 3	6 PM Saturday	TBS	3.2
After double-digit increases for the first two games, look for the potential series clincher between the Cardinals and Dodgers to see a solid boost in the ratings over last year’s comparable Phillies/Brewers Game 3 (2.9).
MLB	Angels/Red Sox Game 3	12 PM Sunday	TBS	2.4
The Noon ET start for Game 3 between the Angels and Red Sox is the earliest for an MLB postseason game since ’88. Despite the early start, expect ratings to improve over the 1.5 Phillies/Brewers Game 4 drew in a comparable timeslot last year.
MLB	Yankees/Twins Game 3	7 PM Sunday	TBS	4.8
The Yankees go for the series sweep on Sunday night. In ’07, Game 3 between the Yankees and Indians — also on a Sunday night — drew a 5.4 rating. Last year’s comparable Angels/Red Sox Game 3 drew a 3.9.
MLB	Phillies/Rockies Game 3	10 PM Sunday	TBS	3.3
Rescheduled from Saturday due to inclement weather, Game 3 between the Phillies and Rockies gets a late start on TBS Sunday night. While the 10 PM ET start may not cater to fans on the East Coast, it is certainly better for ratings than the 2:30 PM ET starts for Games 1 and 2. With the later timeslot and the Yankees as a lead-in, expect Game 3 to easily be the highest rated of the series so far.
NFL	Colts/Titans	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	9.4
With the Titans 0-4 and and the Yankees playing on TBS, look for Sunday Night Football to sink to a season low on NBC. Still, ratings should improve over the 8.8 for Steelers/Jaguars during Week 5 last season.
NFL	Patriots/Broncos or other regional action	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	14.3
The Patriots are always a big draw. Look for their clash against the undefeated Broncos to give CBS strong numbers on Sunday. Last year, Bengals/Cowboys drew a 12.6.
NFL	Raiders/Giants or other regional action	1 PM Sunday	CBS	7.8
Do not expect blockbuster numbers for the first game of Sunday’s NFL doubleheader on CBS — which features, among others, the Raiders (1-3), Lions (1-3), Bills (1-3) and Browns (0-4).
NFL	Cowboys/Chiefs or other regional action	1 PM Sunday	FOX	9.2
Even against the 0-4 Chiefs and Rams, look for the Cowboys and Vikings (Brett Favre) to draw well for FOX on Sunday.
College football	Florida/LSU	8 PM Saturday	CBS	5.0
This battle of Top 5 SEC rivals would be a big draw no matter what, but the drama surrounding Florida QB Tim Tebow‘s health should provide an added boost for CBS on Saturday night. Last year, a primetime battle between these same teams drew a 3.8 rating on CBS; two years ago, another primetime game between the teams drew a 5.3.
College football	Alabama/Mississippi	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	2.9
Expect solid numbers for the first game of Saturday’s college football doubleheader on CBS, a Top 25 battle between #3 Alabama and #20 Mississippi.
College football	Michigan/Iowa	8 PM Saturday	ABC	3.6
Opposite Florida/LSU on CBS, look for Saturday Night Football to stumble to its lowest rating of the season on ABC.
College football	Wisconsin/Ohio State or other regional action	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.3
College football action featuring marquee programs Ohio State and Oklahoma should put up solid numbers on ABC Saturday afternoon.
Golf	Presidents Cup, Final Round	12 PM Sunday	NBC	2.6
Golf has had some major ratings momentum over the past two months. Will that continue for Sunday’s final round of the Presidents Cup? Final round coverage in ’07 drew a 2.3 rating; final round coverage in ’05 drew a 3.0.
NASCAR	Pepsi 500	3:15 PM Sunday	ABC	3.3
Expect ratings for the Pepsi 500 to be on par with last year’s 3.3, when the event took place in August and aired on cable.
NBA	Warriors/Suns	9:30 PM Saturday	TNT	0.7
Without competition from Phillies/Rockies Game 4 on sister network TBS, Saturday night’s Warriors/Suns outdoor preseason game on TNT might attract a few more viewers. Still, opposite college football and without much in the way of promotion or interest, do not expect very good numbers.