The NCAA Final Four highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on the docket, the Women’s national championship, MLB Opening Night, the NBA, NASCAR and hockey.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NCAA Elite Eight: North Carolina-Kentucky. Prediction: 9.4; final rating: 8.9.
— NCAA Elite Eight: South Carolina-Florida. Prediction: 5.2; final rating: 5.9.
— NCAA Elite Eight: Oregon-Kansas. Prediction: 6.0; final rating: 5.4.
— NCAA Elite Eight: Gonzaga-Xavier. Prediction: 4.5; final rating: 3.7.
— NBA regular season: Thunder-Rockets. Prediction: 1.3; final rating: 0.9.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Fontana. Prediction: 3.5; final rating: 3.2.
— PGA-WGC Match Play: Final Round. Prediction: 1.4; final rating: 1.5.
This Week’s Predictions
Men’s Final Four: North Carolina-Oregon (8:49 PM Sat, CBS)
- Final Four ratings are largely riding on North Carolina, the last remaining blueblood in a field dominated by non-traditional teams. The Tar Heels are one of the biggest draws in college hoops, but their mere presence cannot guarantee big ratings. Their win over Syracuse in last year’s national semifinals had a 7.3 rating, the lowest in the window since at least 1996, with the caveat that it aired on cable in what was a down year for the tournament. Ratings should not be quite so low this year, with the Final Four back on CBS and ratings trending upward through the Elite Eight. Yet one should not expect particularly high numbers either, given Oregon’s low basketball profile. Outside of last year, the late Final Four window has not dipped below a 9.2 rating since 2009. Prediction: 8.8.
Men’s Final Four: Gonzaga-South Carolina (6:09 PM Sat, CBS)
- Gonzaga’s Elite Eight win over Xavier was the lowest rated regional final in at least two decades, but that does not necessarily mean their matchup with South Carolina this weekend will be a ratings disaster. It is true that South Carolina is an even less traditional team than Xavier, but the Gamecocks’ surprising run has been arguably the story of the tournament thus far (beating Duke certainly helped). More importantly, last year’s Villanova-Oklahoma game set such a low bar — the Wildcats’ 40-point win was the lowest rated Final Four game in at least 20 years with a 6.1 — that it is hard to imagine ratings could go any lower. The numbers will be among the lowest on record, but still expect a solid, maybe even double-digit, increase. Prediction: 7.1.
Women’s NCAA Tournament National Championship (6 PM Sun, ESPN)
- Barring one of the greatest upsets in sports history, UConn will be going for its fifth straight title and 113th straight win in Sunday’s title game, a run of dominance that has not been great for ratings thus far. Other than their 2014 win, which came in a battle of undefeateds against Notre Dame (2.8), UConn’s current run of consecutive titles has produced three of the five lowest rated title games since at least 1998. Last year’s 1.9 tied the second-lowest mark over that span. With this year’s title game getting an unusually early 6 PM ET start time to accommodate MLB Opening Night, this year’s numbers could go even lower. Prediction: 1.8.
MLB Opening Night: Cubs-Cardinals (8:30 PM Sun, ESPN)
- Baseball enters the new season with the same question mark horse racing had about a year ago — did ending the biggest drought in the sport also end the biggest draw in the sport? Or did it create a legion of new fans eager to see what will come next? That question probably cannot be answered in one season, and certainly not in one game. For now, expect the honeymoon from the Cubs’ historic win to carry over into the start of this season. Last year’s Opening Night game between the Mets and Royals had a 1.8 rating; Cardinals-Cubs in 2015 had a 2.0 on ESPN2. Prediction: 2.5.
NBA regular season: Celtics-Knicks & Jazz-Spurs (1/3:30 PM Sun, ABC)
- After a terrible March, the NBA on ABC enters the month of April with a less-than-scintillating doubleheader. With the Celtics battling the flagging Cavaliers for the #1 seed in the East, their matchup with the Knicks Sunday has some relevance — though perhaps not enough to overcome New York’s poor record. Jazz-Spurs is a matchup of solid playoff teams, but ones that have rarely moved the needle. Do not expect more record-low ratings this weekend, but the numbers should still be low nonetheless. Predictions: 1.4 and 1.5.
NASCAR Cup Series from Martinsville (2 PM Sun, Fox Sports 1)
- New sponsor, new format, but even worse results for NASCAR, which has started its season with declines for four of its five races (-18%, -18% and -20% for the past three). If the numbers are to turn around, this week may be a place to start. The bar is a lot lower on Fox Sports 1, which last year pulled a 2.5 rating for coverage from Martinsville. Of course it is also a lot harder to attract viewers on FS1 than on “big Fox.” Prediction: 2.3.
NHL regular season: Bruins-Blackhawks (12:30 PM Sun, NBC)
- For as poorly as NASCAR, the NBA and PGA have performed on broadcast lately, the NHL is not having much of a season either. With just two weekends left before the playoffs, the league has yet to crack a 1.0 rating for an indoor game on NBC this season. Perhaps this week’s 2013 final rematch will end the drought. Prediction: 0.9.
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