Ratings Predictions: Belmont Stakes, NBA & More

The Belmont Stakes carries the possibility of a Triple Crown winner for the first time since American Pharoah ended one of sports’ enduring droughts three years ago. One of the primary questions since the Triple Crown trophy was finally taken off the shelf in 2015 was how much the 37-year drought contributed to horse racing’s popularity. If this year is any indication, there has been a drop-off in interest. This year’s Kentucky Derby tied its lowest rating since 2006 (8.5), while the Preakness posted its second-worst rating since NBC acquired rights (4.8). The low point was set last year (4.6).

Justify‘s run on Saturday will provide the strongest evidence yet of where horse racing stands post-American Pharoah. The last two times the Belmont had featured a Triple Crown contender, ratings exceeded an 11.0 — 2015 (11.2) and 2014 (11.9). A decade ago, Big Brown’s failed attempt had just a 9.0 rating on ABC. Prediction: 10.2.

If you can remember that far back, Cavs-Warriors was once a rivalry. Golden State and Cleveland split their first two finals back in 2015 and 2016, the first series going six and the second going a memorable seven. Since Kevin Durant‘s arrival in Oakland, the matchup has turned into an anti-climactic farce. Golden State has gone 7-1 in a pair of series where the outcome was never in doubt. Ratings have remained strong, but this year’s numbers will surely end up as the lowest in the teams’ four-year run of finals matchups. In the same 0-3 hole last year, Cleveland blew out Golden State and the game had a 10.7 rating. Expect a closer game this time around, with the Warriors putting this Lakers-Nets redux out of its misery. Clinchers tend to attract a few extra tenths, so ratings should inch up. Prediction: 10.9.

Expect mixed results for this weekend’s French Open singles finals. With American Sloane Stephens replacing the unknown Jelena Ostapenko, the women’s final should increase over last year’s record-low 0.7. On the men’s side, even Rafael Nadal’s starpower is unlikely to make-up for a low-profile opponent. Ratings should slide from last year’s 1.1. Predictions: 1.0 on Saturday, 1.0 on Sunday.

NASCAR ratings have been in decline for more than a decade, but this season may well represent rock bottom. Not counting rainouts, all 12 Cup Series races this season have declined double-digits to multi-year lows, with 11 of the 12 hitting all-time or decade-plus depths. This week, the schedule provides a potential reprieve. FOX will carry Sunday’s Michigan race, the first time it has aired on a broadcast network since 2005. Usually there is no easier way to boost NASCAR ratings than to move the race from cable to broadcast television. If that is not enough this week, then it is hard to imagine anything turning the numbers around. Last year’s race had a 1.85 rating. Prediction: 2.0.

There really is no good context for opening the season with ten straight declines, but Sunday Night Baseball can at least look forward to that streak ending this weekend. Yankees-Mets may not have been much of a World Series matchup 18 years ago, but the Subway Series is reliably one of baseball’s better regular season draws. Ratings should easily top last year’s Tigers-Red Sox game (0.85) and finally give SNB its first increase of the season. Prediction: 1.3.

It is hard to imagine a move from NBC to ABC having much impact on Sunday’s F1 Canadian Grand Prix. The race had a 0.8 rating in its last two airings on NBC and there is no real reason to expect anything different this time around. Prediction: 0.8.