College basketball’s championship week highlights the weekend ratings forecast. Also on the docket, the NBA and auto racing.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— College hoops: Duke-North Carolina. Prediction: 2.0; final rating: 2.4.
— College hoops: Purdue-Northwestern. Prediction: 1.0; final rating: 1.0.
— NBA regular season: Warriors-Knicks. Prediction: 2.5; final rating: 2.1.
— NBA regular season: Clippers-Bulls. Prediction: 1.3; final rating: 1.1.
— PGA Tour: final rd. of WGC-Mexico Championship. Prediction: 2.1; final rating: 2.2.
— NASCAR Cup Series from Atlanta. Prediction: 4.4; final rating: 3.8.
— Women’s soccer: United States-England. Prediction: 0.8; final rating: 0.5.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NCAA Tournament Selection Show (5:30 PM Sunday, CBS)
- Though NCAA Tournament ratings have been strong in recent years — last year being a historically low exception — ratings for the NCAA Selection Show have been in prolonged decline. Last year’s two-hour edition was the lowest rated yet with a 3.3, down from the previous record low of 3.5 set the previous year. A shorter 90-minute run-time might help this year’s ratings, but the real problem is less the timeslot and more the fact that brackets go up online almost as soon as they are made public on TV (or in last year’s case, before). Prediction: 3.1.
ACC Tournament Final: Duke-Notre Dame (9 PM Saturday, ESPN)
- Duke and Notre Dame are arguably the two most polarizing brands in college sports, though the latter is more associated with football than basketball. With ACC Tournament numbers already up big — and that’s not even including Friday’s semifinal between Duke and rival North Carolina — Saturday’s final figures to earn a strong rating. Last year’s UNC-Virginia game had a 1.7 rating; Notre Dame-UNC had a 2.2 in 2015. Prediction: 2.6.
Pac-12 Tournament Final: Oregon-Arizona (11 PM Saturday, ESPN)
- ESPN would likely have preferred Lonzo Ball and UCLA in Saturday’s Pac-12 final, but a top ten matchup between Oregon and Arizona is a good consolation prize. Given the presumably strong lead-in, ratings should improve over the last time ESPN aired the Pac-12 title game, 2015 (1.2). Prediction: 1.4.
Big East Tournament Final: Villanova-Creighton (5:30 PM Saturday, FOX)
- Once the crown jewel of championship week, the Big East Tournament has not cracked a 1.0 rating since the conference reformed and moved to Fox Sports 1 in 2013. Last year’s game came close with a 0.9 on the FOX broadcast network, up from an infinitesimal 0.2 on Fox Sports 1 the previous year. With Villanova’s profile having grown since winning the national title, perhaps this year’s game will finally get over the hump. Prediction: 1.0.
Big Ten Tournament Final: Wisconsin or Northwestern vs. Michigan or Minnesota (3:30 PM Sunday, CBS)
- With Cinderella story Northwestern and sentimental favorite Michigan still in the mix, the Big Ten title game could deliver strong numbers Sunday afternoon. Regardless of the matchup, ratings have a good shot of topping last year’s 2.2, the lowest for the game since at least 2008. Prediction: 2.4.
NBA regular season: Warriors-Spurs (8:30 PM Saturday, ABC)
- ABC has been rather snakebitten this NBA season, facing unusual NFL competition on Christmas Day and losing LeBron James for one of its Saturday Primetime games. Yet nothing compares to this week. A Warriors-Spurs matchup that looked like one of the league’s biggest games will be absent its five biggest stars — Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson — due to rest or injury. Instead of the blockbuster numbers that could have otherwise been anticipated, Saturday’s matchup will be lucky to crack a 2.0 rating opposite the NCAA. The good news for ABC is that the bar has been set low for next season’s games. Prediction: 1.5.
NBA regular season: Cavaliers-Rockets (9 PM Sunday, ESPN)
- With Warriors-Spurs fizzling to the point of complete evaporation, the weekend’s biggest NBA matchup is a matchup of MVP candidates LeBron James and James Harden. Airing immediately after ESPN’s Bracketology coverage, a slot previously reserved for 30 For 30 premieres, look for decent numbers by cable standards. Prediction: 1.7.
NASCAR Cup Series from Las Vegas (3:30 PM Sunday, FOX)
- While there are some positive trends if one digs into the demo numbers, NASCAR has not improved on last year’s poor start overall. Ratings were flat at Daytona and down at Atlanta, no small statement given how poorly those races did last year. A similar performance at Las Vegas would result in that track’s worst performance in 17 years — maybe more. Last year’s 4.4 tied the lowest Cup Series rating at Vegas since 2000. Prediction: 4.1.
IndyCar Series from St. Petersburg (12 PM Sunday, ABC)
- Last year’s IndyCar opener hit a five-year ratings high (1.0), the result of a scheduling change that moved it away from the NCAA Tournament. Expect the numbers to slide back a bit this year. Prediction: 0.8.
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