The NCAA Tournament headlines this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on the docket, the NBA, NASCAR and PGA Tour.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NCAA Tournament Selection Show. Prediction: 3.1; final rating: 3.0.
— ACC Tournament Final: Duke-Notre Dame. Prediction: 2.6; final rating: 2.0.
— Pac-12 Tournament Final: Oregon-Arizona. Prediction: 1.4; final rating: 1.2.
— Big Ten Tournament Final: Michigan-Wisconsin. Prediction: 2.4; final rating: 2.3.
— NBA regular season: Warriors-Spurs. Prediction: 1.5; final rating: 1.5.
— NBA regular season: Cavaliers-Rockets: Prediction: 1.7; final rating: 1.5.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Las Vegas. Prediction: 4.1; final rating: 3.6.
— IndyCar Series: St. Petersburg. Prediction: 0.8; final rating: 0.8.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NCAA Tournament: Gonzaga-Northwestern (5:15 PM Saturday, CBS)
- Northwestern’s first ever trip to the NCAA Tournament has been one of the biggest stories in sports, though it is not quite clear how its translating in the ratings. The Wildcats’ blowout loss in the Big Ten semis last weekend sank 12% from last year (Michigan’s semifinal and final, by contrast, increased). Facing the lowest-profile of the #1 seeds, ratings may be hard-pressed to match last year’s 6.3 for Kentucky-Indiana. Prediction: 5.6.
NCAA Tournament: Louisville-Michigan (12:10 PM Sunday, CBS)
- The last time Michigan and Louisville met in the NCAA Tournament, their high-scoring national championship game scored a 14.0 rating, still the third-best college basketball rating in the past 12 years. Sunday’s rematch will obviously come nowhere close, but expect strong numbers nonetheless — especially given Michigan’s dramatic run of late. Iowa-Villanova had a 3.5 in the same slot last year. Prediction: 4.8.
NCAA Tournament: Kentucky-Wichita State (2:40 PM Sunday, CBS)
- When Kentucky and Wichita State last met in the NCAA Tournament three years ago — same round, same day, same timeslot — the rating was a strong 7.5. With Wichita State a #1 and Kentucky badly underseeded at #8, there was a little bit more intrigue for that matchup. Even though Wichita State is a trendy upset pick, expect lower numbers this time around. Ratings should still easily surpass last year’s Notre Dame-Stephen F. Austin matchup (5.4). Prediction: 6.9.
NCAA Tournament: UNC-Arkansas & Duke-South Carolina (6:10 & 8:40 PM Sunday, TNT)
- North Carolina and Duke generated five of the seven largest college basketball audiences during the regular season — three for games against each other — and CBS passed on both this weekend. One network’s loss is another network’s gain, as TNT should score solid increases over its comparable doubleheader last year, Syracuse-Middle Tennessee (1.4) and Wisconsin-Xavier (1.8). Predictions: 1.7 and 2.5.
NBA regular season: Cavaliers-Clippers (8:30 PM Saturday, ABC)
- It has been a rough season for the NBA on ABC and this week’s game is unlikely to turn things around. The time has passed when simply putting LeBron James on the schedule meant a strong rating, and the Clippers stopped moving the needle years ago. Opposite the NCAA Tournament, expect weak numbers. Last year’s Warriors-Spurs game had an unusually strong 3.1 rating, owing to the teams’ historically strong records at the time. Prediction: 1.4.
NASCAR Cup Series from Phoenix (3:30 PM Sunday, FOX)
- Instead of bouncing back from last year, NASCAR is off to an even worse start in the ratings this season. Ratings have fallen 8% in three weeks, with Atlanta and Las Vegas both hitting multi-year lows (an all-time low for the latter). Expect the downward trend to continue this week, especially as last year’s Phoenix race (4.0) did not face the NCAA Tournament. Prediction: 3.4.
PGA Tour: final round of Arnold Palmer Invitational (2:30 PM Sunday, NBC)
- Ratings have declined for nine of the past 11 PGA Tour windows on broadcast TV, including the past six final round telecasts. Look for that to continue at this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, which despite the event’s obvious resonance this year is missing some of the biggest stars in the sport — Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson and world #1 Dustin Johnson. Last year’s final round had a 1.9 rating. Prediction: 1.6.
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