Ratings Predictions: NCAA Tournament Elite Eight & More

The brackets have not been so much busted this March as incinerated, but heading into the Elite Eight, CBS and Turner still have a good number of marquee teams left in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Half of the Elite Eight field is made up of college hoops bluebloods, #1 seeds Kansas and Villanova, #2 Duke and #3 Michigan. Those are pretty good consolation prizes in a year when Kentucky and North Carolina bowed out early.

As for the other half, #9 seeds FSU and Kansas State and #3 Texas Tech are probably not what CBS and Turner had in mind this late in the tournament. #11 Loyola-Chicago on the other hand is the ideal underdog. The Ramblers hail from a small conference (major conference underdogs like FSU and K-State are just not the same), boast an offbeat backstory (the prominence of team chaplain Sister Jean) and play in a major TV market. A Final Four of Loyola, Villanova, Michigan and either Duke or Kansas has the potential to draw strong numbers. Expect those teams to drive this weekend’s Elite Eight ratings.

LOYOLA (CHI.)-KANSAS STATE (6:09 PM SAT TBS): In the first game of the weekend, Loyola faces Kansas State in an unprecedented #11 vs. #9 matchup. Loyola drew surprisingly well against Nevada in the Sweet Sixteen, with their close win pulling even with Oregon-Michigan last year. That Loyola could match Michigan speaks well of their drawing power. Last year’s Gonzaga-Xavier game set a historically low bar with a 3.7 rating. Prediction: 4.5.

FSU-MICHIGAN (8:49 PM SAT TBS): Saturday night, it’s a rematch of the 2016 Orange Bowl as Michigan faces FSU. The Wolverines may not be in Duke or Kentucky territory, but they draw quite well. Outside of the Final Four, only one college basketball game in cable history has exceeded a 6.0 rating – Kentucky-Notre Dame in the 2015 Elite Eight (8.4). Expect Saturday’s game to be the second. Prediction: 6.2.

TEXAS TECH-VILLANOVA (2:20 PM SUN CBS): As for Sunday, Villanova-Texas Tech does not exactly look like a ratings bonanza — but neither did last year’s South Carolina-Florida game, which still pulled a solid 5.9. Expect similar numbers, though this game is the most likely of the weekend to decline. Prediction: 5.7.

DUKE-KANSAS (5:05 PM SUN CBS): Finally, Duke-Kansas is about as good as it gets for CBS. Two college basketball bluebloods in the best timeslot of the weekend. The highest Elite Eight rating in the past 12 years is an 8.9, hit multiple times (including last year). Prediction: 9.1.

Even the biggest pessimist would not have predicted that NASCAR would open 2018 with five straight double-digit declines. Already this season, four of five races have posted a record-low rating. Expect more of the same this week at Martinsville, which is the season’s first race on FS1. Last year’s race had a 2.3 rating. Prediction: 2.0.

Tiger Woods is clearly the biggest draw in golf, but the PGA’s resurgence this season is not solely the result of his resurgence. Final round ratings increased for the Phoenix Open and WGC Mexico Championship without Woods in the field, and the first two days of this week’s WGC-Match Play Championships increased double-digits to multi-year highs. Expect more gains on Sunday. Last year’s final day had a 1.5 rating. Prediction: 1.9.

Mississippi State was the story of last year’s Women’s NCAA Tournament, taking down unbeatable UConn in a stunning Final Four upset. Before their shocker of UConn, they took down Baylor in one of the better Elite Eight games in recent years. That game had a 0.8 rating, a somewhat high bar for this year’s matchup to clear. Prediction: 0.7.

After a good run during the Olympics, NBC’s two subsequent NHL telecasts have declined from last year. Do not expect this week’s Flyers-Penguins game to make it three in a row. With Philadelphia back in the playoff mix, one of the league’s hottest rivalries is a potential playoff preview. Expect a fairly sizable bump over last year’s mere 0.6 for Blues-Blackhawks. Prediction: 0.9.