Ratings predictions: NASCAR, “The Last Dance” and more

NASCAR is set to return from a two-month hiatus Sunday, surpassing the UFC and the Pro Bull Riders Tour as the most significant domestic league back in operation. This weekend was originally supposed to feature the NASCAR All-Star Race, but instead the season resumes with the first of two newly added races at Darlington.

Since sports went dark in mid-March, there have been mixed results for the few live or original events to take place. The NFL Draft and ESPN’s “The Last Dance” were smashing success stories. The UFC posted solid results last weekend. Smaller events like cornhole and the Korean Baseball League did not make a dent.

On a scale from the KBO to the NFL Draft, expect NASCAR to land somewhere in the middle. With only a golf exhibition as competition, Sunday’s race should comfortably top the season’s previous non-Daytona races, none of which exceeded a 3.2. Anything above a 3.6 would be the best for a non-Daytona race in four years. Prediction: 4.0.

Where would ESPN be right now without The Last Dance? The ten-part Michael Jordan documentary has sustained the network over the past month, giving it appointment programming every Sunday night and then days of content for its debate shows during the week. Entering this week’s finale, it has averaged 5.6 million viewers in its initial airings, an impressive number that is substantially higher including VOD, DVR and encore viewing.

Given the circumstances, “The Last Dance” will go down as one of the most important shows in ESPN history. Having ten hours of Michael Jordan content in the can during the quietest period in sports history was not just fortuitous, but miraculously lucky.

Viewership has been steadily declining for the series since it debuted with 6.1 million viewers, but not by much. Last week’s episodes averaged 5.1 million. Expect a few of the departed viewers to come back for the finale. Prediction: 3.3 rating, 5.3M viewers.

Live golf is scheduled to return with a charity event on NBC, NBCSN and Golf Channel Sunday. Rory McIlroy headlines a four-player field that also includes Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler and Matthew Wolff, and while the line-up is not quite as high-profile as what is to come next weekend — Tiger, Phil, Peyton and Brady — it should be more than enough to attract golf-starved viewers. Will the three-network presentation be enough to push Sunday’s event past the competing NASCAR race on FOX? Prediction: 3.6.

UFC put up healthy numbers in its return to ESPN last weekend, but nothing out of the realm of ordinary. The show’s 0.7 rating was actually even with the previous PPV prelims in March, back when the sports world was operating as normal (though a bit more impressive since sustained over four hours rather than two). Expect similar numbers for Saturday’s card. ESPN’s previous primetime main event — back in December — averaged a 0.6. Prediction: 0.8.

The Bundesliga’s scheduled return this weekend marks the first major soccer since Liga MX bailed in mid-March. With the entire soccer world having only one league to watch, it stands to reason that the numbers will be substantially higher than usual. Of course given how small Bundesliga ratings are generally, that may not be saying much. Prediction: 0.21.

— NBA All-Star Game. Prediction: 4.0; result: 4.1.
— NBA Rising Stars Challenge. Prediction: 1.3; result: 0.9.
— NASCAR: Daytona 500. Prediction: 5.5; result: 4.4 (Monday finish)
— XFL: New York-DC. Prediction: 2.0; result: 1.35.
— XFL: Tampa Bay-Seattle. Prediction: 1.8; result: 1.5.
— XFL: Dallas-LA. Prediction: 1.4; result: 1.5.
— XFL: St. Louis-Houston. Prediction: 0.7; result: 0.8.
— NHL Stadium Series: Kings-Avs. Prediction: 0.8; result: 0.6.